Reader’s Opinion | There is nothing new from the Eastern Front – the war is prolonged, and even the waning of hostilities does not bring stability

Opinion|Reader’s opinion

Russian there is no end in sight to military actions against Ukraine. At the moment, neither side seems to be capable of more extensive operations than the use of tactical fire. Neither is winning or losing. The much-awaited Ukrainian counterattack somewhere in the direction of Kherson would also not be enough to return only a small part of the territories captured, occupied and annexed by Russia back to their rightful owner. There is no hope of any permanent ceasefire, armistice – let alone a peace treaty. Nothing new from the Eastern Front; the war is prolonged.

And the waning of hostilities by tired parties in the distant future will not bring stability either. It’s about a broader ideological confrontation in Ukraine as well. Without the need to look for historical connections with the war of the early 17th century, the current situation can be called the Thirty Years’ War.

The war, varying in intensity and appearance, started fifteen years ago with Russian cyber attacks against Estonia and the free digital information society. It continued with the seizure of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia in 2008. It has accelerated both on the diplomatic and cyber fronts. Domestic dissidents have been silenced, imprisoned or intimidated to death. In the civil wars of Libya and Syria, both the East and the West have tested the effectiveness of power and force. The annexation of eastern Ukraine and Crimea eight years ago is set in a continuum. In Russian-chauvinist thinking, stump Ukraine symbolizes the inevitable loss of the West, democracy and human rights.

No change to more stable conditions should be expected as long as the Putins, Lavrovs and Patrushevs, who are now entering their eighth decade, are involved. Their departure within about fifteen years also does not promise the return of border trade, trust and interdependence or the return of the fossil economy. Markets, friendship and energy have to be found elsewhere. And if the current world order allows such a Putin-like raping of people, nations and international law, it really needs to be changed. There are no easy solutions. We have to find substance and tenacity in ourselves.

Mika Kerttunen

doctor of political science, lieutenant colonel evp.

docent of military strategy, National Defense University

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