US military expert Hertling believes that Putin’s recruiting strategy in the Ukraine war is a device from the 17th century – and accuses the Kremlin chief of strategic failure.
Moscow – First partial mobilization, now martial law: In the Ukraine war, Russian President Vladimir Putin is apparently creating the basis for being able to call up Ukrainian soldiers into the Russian army. From the perspective of military expert Mark Hertling, the Kremlin chief is pursuing a strategy from the 17th century. The expert does not concede that this type of personnel recruitment has great chances of success. Putin’s actions cause more problems than they solve.
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On Wednesday, Putin declared a state of war in the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately warned his compatriots not to be drafted into the Russian army and called on them to flee the occupied territories. Those who cannot flee should lay down their arms and try to desert to the Ukrainians. “The most important thing: save your life and be sure to help others too!” Zelenskyj advised the people in the affected areas.
There has not yet been an official convocation in the areas annexed in violation of international law. However, military experts expect “massive forced conscription” that martial law would make possible. According to information from war experts at the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian chief administrator of Kherson, Vladimir Saldo, has already called on people to “volunteer” to put together a reconnaissance battalion. According to an earlier ISW report from September, men from the occupied territories had already been sent into military service. But the men recruited from Ukraine had no will to fight, according to former army officers. The problem of the lack of motivation is obvious: Ukrainians would have to fight against Ukrainians.
Putin’s partial mobilization apparently creates more problems than it solves
The military expert Mark Hertling speaks of “dragoning” in this context, referring to a historical term that came into use in the 17th century. It was used to describe the forced conscription of natives who had to fight “against their will with arms” without loyalty to the ruler or patriotic duty. At that time, the subjugated only had one decision: fight or die, the military expert continued. This is how despots form an army, Hertling explains. “Putin’s mobilization creates more problems than it solves.”
Hertling worked for many years as a lieutenant general in the US Army. He came to public attention in 2018 when he co-authored Molly K. McKew in an article for the political magazine political labeled Russian interference in the 2016 US elections an “act of war” and called on the US to respond. The former lieutenant general repeatedly comments on the Ukraine war on his Twitter channel, which is followed by almost half a million people.
US military expert sees signs of Putin’s strategic failure – and counts on Ukraine’s victory
Military expert Hertling goes on to say that the Kremlin chief’s mobilization caused major problems, particularly due to the lack of training and the hasty integration of unprepared soldiers. Numerous other experts had already expressed their views accordingly, including the ISW think tank. According to the off-duty lieutenant general, three weeks after the start of the partial mobilization, Moscow reported “economic, diplomatic, domestic, supply-related and ‘potential political problems’.” – i.e. the forced recruitments – are all signs of an ongoing strategic failure on the part of Putin.
Hertling then refers to the military strategist Carl von Clausewitz, who wrote “On War” in the 19th century, a standard work on warfare. “Applying Clausewitz’s trilogy, according to which wars are decided by the strength of the army, popular support and the power of the government, my bet is on Ukraine,” concludes the US military strategy.
Even the Kremlin itself has admitted that there are problems with partial mobilization. According to reports, for example, recruits with no combat experience have been sent directly to the front lines and prisoners have been recruited in prisons. Activists complain that members of ethnic minorities are particularly hard hit by forced recruitment and are therefore sometimes even talking about “ethnic cleansing”.
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