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Vladimir Putin is sworn in amid growing tensions with the West, while Moscow’s nuclear weapons exercises raise fears of new escalation.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin was sworn in for the fifth time.
- Moscow is preparing tactical nuclear weapons exercises.
- The exercises are intended to deter NATO – but how real is a possible deployment?
- This article is available for the first time in German – the magazine first published it on May 7, 2024 Foreign policy.
Munich – While Russian leader Vladimir Putin was sworn in as president for the fifth time on Tuesday (May 7, 2024), his country’s armed forces were preparing for tactical nuclear weapons exercises. A dramatic split-screen was shown that made it clear how much Russia has changed since Putin was first sworn in as president exactly 24 years ago.
When he took office, Putin promised to preserve democracy
In a speech at his first inauguration in 2000, Putin – former President Boris Yeltsin’s hand-picked successor – heralded his election as the first time in the country’s history that power in the Kremlin would be “by the will of the people – lawfully and peacefully.” “I changed. He promised to preserve and further develop the democracy, which was still fragile at the time.
Nearly a quarter of a century later, his troops are stuck in war in Ukraine, his political opponents are in exile, imprisoned or dead, and Putin is striking a decidedly different tone. He spoke of the need for a political system that is “strong” and “absolutely resilient to all challenges and threats.”
Russia is conducting exercises with tactical nuclear weapons
He accused the West of trying to pressure Russia with a “policy of aggression” and suggested he would be open to dialogue if Western countries changed their behavior. “Dialogue, including about security and strategic stability, is possible, but not from a position of strength. Without arrogance, arrogance and claims to exclusivity, but only on equal terms and with due respect for each other’s interests,” he said.
The day before, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Putin had ordered military exercises for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the face of “provocative statements and threats” from Western officials.
Belarus also announces inspection of Russian nuclear weapons delivery vehicles
While senior Russian officials have routinely referred to the country’s extensive nuclear arsenal as tensions with the West have worsened, this is the first time Moscow has publicly announced exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons.
On Tuesday, the Belarusian Defense Ministry, which has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, also announced an inspection of delivery vehicles for Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed in the country.
A series of statements by Western officials in recent weeks have drawn Russia’s ire and appear to have sparked this latest round of nuclear saber rattling.
Macron’s comments are causing tensions in Russia
On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed to recent statements by French President Emmanuel Macron, who had repeatedly refused to rule out the possibility of stationing Western troops in Ukraine.
The French ambassador to Moscow, Pierre Levy, attended Putin’s inauguration on Tuesday – despite having been summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry the day before, which the French Foreign Ministry dismissed as an attempt at intimidation. The ambassadors of the United States, Britain and most European Union countries boycotted the ceremony.
Macron’s comments, which were downplayed by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, came as U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke in an interview with CBS News on Sunday warned that Ukraine should not be allowed to fall because if that happens, “then there is a high probability that America will have to intervene in the conflict – not only with our money, but also with our servicemen and women.”
Nuclear weapons exercises as a deterrent mechanism for NATO
And in an interview with Reuters last week, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said Ukraine has the right to use long-range weapons provided by the United Kingdom to attack targets in Russia.
All of this appears to have prompted Putin to make a statement in his own way by ordering tactical nuclear exercises.
Nuclear experts said the Russian exercises were not immediately alarming because Moscow was making progress on the battlefield in Ukraine. “I think it’s a political statement that is ultimately aimed at deterring NATO on the ground,” said James Acton, co-director of the nuclear program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who added that the likelihood of a Russian atomic bomb use in the region would rise if Putin felt cornered in the war. “By far the most likely trigger for this is a threat to Crimea,” he said.
In what scenario could Russia really use nuclear weapons?
From a report by Financial Times February reveals that Russia’s threshold for using a tactical nuclear weapon is lower than the country had previously admitted. Possible scenarios that could trigger the use of a tactical nuclear weapon include a possible raid on Russian territory, the defeat of units securing the country’s borders, and more nebulous ones, according to a cache of secret Russian military documents seen by the newspaper Goals such as “stopping aggression” and “containing states that use aggression.” […] or military conflicts escalate.”
In late 2022, US officials began “rigorous preparations” amid fears that Russia could use a nuclear weapon on the battlefield in Ukraine, as CNN reported in March.
While strategic nuclear warheads that can be deployed across continents are the subject of a number of arms control agreements dating back to the Cold War era, tactical nuclear weapons have never been the subject of such agreements, and there is little transparency about the extent of Moscow’s tactical nuclear arsenal.
“Stunning Western leadership” through nuclear weapons
There is no generally accepted definition of tactical nuclear weapons, but they are generally considered to be smaller weapons used on the battlefield to gain the upper hand in war.
Aware of the fearsome impact of nuclear weapons use, not seen since the U.S. dropped two nuclear weapons on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, Putin is more likely to use a tactical nuclear warhead to stun Western leaders , to change her stance on war rather than to gain an advantage on the battlefield, according to Acton.
“I think the goal of nuclear weapons would be to scare us by threatening escalation,” he said. “Ultimately, Russia’s nuclear threshold is wherever Putin sets it.”
About the author
Amy Mackinnon is a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign Policy. Twitter (X): @ak_mack
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on May 7, 2024 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com“ was published – as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.
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