05/23/2024 – 14:11
São Paulo, 23 – The International Grains Council (IGC) reduced its forecast for global grain production in 2023/24, from 2.301 billion tons last month to 2.297 billion tons now in May, with the prospect of lower supply of sorghum and barley. However, according to an IGC survey published this Thursday, the 23rd, the projected volume is above that estimated for 2022/23, of 2.266 billion tons. For 2024/25, the world harvest projection was reduced by 10 million tons, to 2.312 billion tons, considering cuts for corn in Argentina and sub-Saharan Africa, and smaller wheat harvests in Russia, Ukraine and the United States.
The IGC slightly raised the estimate for world grain consumption, to 2.311 billion tons in 2023/24, and reduced stocks to 588 million tons. Meanwhile, 2022/23 consumption projections were maintained at 2.274 billion t and stock estimates rose to 602 million t. In 2024/25, the expectation for consumption was reduced to 2.320 billion tons, with lower stocks, at 580 million tons.
The soybean production projection in 2023/24 rose by 1 million tons, to 391 million tons, while the global consumption estimate was slightly reduced to 381 million tons, according to the IGC. Stocks rose by 1 million, to 68 million tons. For the 2022/23 cycle, estimated production remained at 375 million tons, with consumption and stocks estimated at 369 million t and 58 million tons, respectively.
For 2024/25, the projection indicated world production of 414 million tons, with consumption of 404 million t and stocks of 78 million tons. According to the IGC, oilseed production in 2024/25 should reach a record with impressive results in the USA, Brazil and Argentina, “while an increase in demand for soy products should support record total processing and use”.
As for corn, the Council reduced the 2023/24 production estimate by 2 million tons, to 1.225 billion tons. The volume is greater than that projected for 2022/23 and 2024/25, of 1.163 billion tons and 1.220 billion tons, respectively. The consumption forecast rose by 1.219 billion tons for the current season, while for 2022/23 it was 1.182 billion tons and 1.225 billion tons for 2024/25. Stocks were estimated at 286 million t, compared to 279 million t in 2022/23 and 281 million t in 2024/25.
In relation to wheat in 2023/24, the IGC increased the production projection by 1 million tons, to 790 million tons. The volume is lower than the 804 million tonnes forecast for 2022/23, and below the 795 million tonnes estimated for 2024/25. The cereal consumption estimate in 2023/24 was maintained at 806 million tons.
For 2022/23, the consumption projection remained at 794 million tons, while the estimate for 2024/25 was slightly reduced to 801 million tons. The outlook for cereal stocks in 2023/24 was reduced to 266 million tons, while for 2022/23 it was 281 million tons. In 2024/25, stocks should be 260 million tons.
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