Faced with an inflation that continues to rise and may remain outside the target for two years in a row, financial market analysts once again increased the projection for the Selic rate at the end of the monetary tightening cycle, according to the Market Expectations System, collected by the Central Bank.
The survey’s median points to the end of the cycle in March, at 11.50%, from 11.25% a week ago. The final high would be 0.75 percentage point, after two increases of 1.50 percentage point, to 9.25% in December and 10.75% in February – compared to 10.50% in the previous week.
Analysts, however, expect a rate reduction in October next year, ending 2022 at 11.25%, from 11.00% a week ago.
In the Focus Bulletin released on Monday, the estimate for the IPCA, the official inflation index, for 2021 reached double digits (10.12%) after 33 weeks of consecutive increase, or more than 7 months, since April. The last time the annual IPCA exceeded 10% was in 2015 (10.67%).
For 2022, the target of the monetary policy, the IPCA also continued to rise, from 4.79% to 4.96%, following the ceiling of next year’s target (5.0%), signaling a high risk of breach of the target by second year in a row.
Considering only the projections updated in the last 5 working days, the median is already in the upper band of the objective to be pursued by the BC, of 5.00%.
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