02/15/2024 – 9:11
The Focus Market Report maintained the fiscal deficit projection for 2024. For the primary deficit in relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, the median remained at 0.80%, the same level as a month before.
The 2024 Annual Budget Law foresees a surplus of R$2.8 billion this year (0% of GDP). President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has already warned that the government “will hardly reach target zero”, especially because the head of the Executive “does not want to make cuts in investments and works”.
Focus's estimate for the nominal deficit in 2024 remained at 6.80% of GDP, compared to 7.00% a month ago. The primary result reflects the balance between government revenues and expenses, before paying interest on public debt. The nominal result reflects the balance after spending on interest and other financial expenses.
The estimate for the indicator that measures the relationship between public sector net debt and GDP in 2024 remained at 63.60%, compared to 63.25% a month ago.
For 2025, the primary deficit expected by the market remained at 0.60% of GDP, compared to 0.66% four weeks ago. The new fiscal framework approved last year foresees a primary surplus target of 0.5% of GDP next year.
The nominal deficit projected for 2025 remained at 6.29% of GDP, compared to 6.39% a month ago. The estimate for net debt rose from 66.00% to 66.25% of GDP, compared to 66.55% four weeks earlier.
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