Abdelfatah al-Sisi is the clear favorite in the presidential elections to be held from December 10 to 12. Using repression against all dissent, and despite an unconvincing economic and security balance, the former marshal could, after ten years in power, remain in power until 2030, at the end of elections that many consider predictable.
More than ten years after succeeding the Islamist Mohamed Morsi – the first Egyptian head of state elected by universal suffrage – Abdel Fattah al-Sisi continues to rule Egypt with an iron fist.
Both among his opponents and his supporters, few doubt his victory in the presidential elections, which will be held from December 10 to 12, as in the two previous ones, in 2014 and 2018, which he won with more than 96% of the votes. .
In fact, the Egyptian leader modified the Constitution in 2019 to be able to run for the third time in elections, thus extending the presidential term from four to six years.
Born in Cairo in November 1954, Abdelfatah al-Sisi was raised in a conservative environment. The son of a merchant, he chose a military career at an early age, as a guarantee of social advancement in a country controlled by the Army. Unknown to the general public for a long time, he gained notoriety in 2012, when he was appointed chief of staff of the Egyptian Army and minister of defense.
This surprise promotion was decided by Mohamed Morsi, the first Egyptian head of state elected by universal suffrage, in June 2012, after the fall of Hosni Mubarak more than a year earlier. At that time, the press presented Abdelfatah al-Sisi as a devout Muslim, compatible with the Muslim Brotherhood, the movement from which President Morsi came, in particular because of his family ties with Abbas al-Sisi, a disciple of Hassan al-Banna, founder of the Islamist brotherhood.
But his brilliant rise in the Army could not have materialized if this possible proximity to the movement most monitored by the Mubarak regime had raised doubts.
Trained partly in the United Kingdom and the United States, Abdelfatah al-Sisi, who was for a time commander of the northern military zone before assuming the head of military intelligence, quickly established himself as the country’s strongman. In early July 2013, following massive demonstrations that brought millions of Egyptians across the country to demand the ouster of Mohamed Morsi, he issued an ultimatum to the president and political leaders. He urged them to “meet the demands of the people,” without explicitly calling for Mohamed Morsi to resign.
The armed forces, in charge of the post-Mubarak transition, come out of the shadows to impose their roadmap and close the revolutionary parenthesis of 2011, as well as the Morsi episode.
The Islamist president was immediately ousted, then detained and imprisoned – and died after collapsing in court in 2019 – while Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations were quelled in a bloodbath that Human Rights Watch described at the time as a “probable crime against The humanity”.
Humble and skillful to his admirers, distrustful and suspicious to his detractors, Abdelfatah al-Sisi can now abandon his military uniform and medals for the suit and tie of a president.
For Egyptians who detract from the political Islam embodied by the brotherhood, it has saved the country from the clutches of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Repression on all fronts
False pluralism, silenced public debate, harassment of opponents, commissioned justice, muzzling of the independent press… The liberal and secular opposition, as well as local and international NGOs, accuse him of wanting to restore the old order after a predictable result in the 2014 elections. According to them, since coming to power, “repression has reached unprecedented levels.”
In a report published on October 2, six international and Egyptian human rights organizations denounced the “massive and systematic use of torture by the authorities” in Egypt, which they say “constitutes a crime against humanity according to international law”.
In parallel with the repressive dominance of the political scene, Abdelfatah al-Sisi is launching a series of pharaonic projects, exalting the greatness of Egypt to flatter the nationalist sentiments of his compatriots.
He ordered the modernization of the country’s infrastructure and the construction of a new administrative capital less than 50 kilometers from Cairo, ironically nicknamed in Egypt “Sisi City.” The project was due to be completed in 2020, but is still in its first phase.
In August 2015, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi inaugurated with great fanfare the work to expand the Suez Canal, another emblematic project erected as a symbol of the “new Egypt.” The then French president, François Hollande, was the guest of honor at the ceremony. The project, which cost Egypt some 7.3 billion euros, was completed on schedule, in less than a year.
The new Suez Canal brought record revenues of around €8.6 billion for the 2022-2023 fiscal year, translating into promises of prosperity and security for Egyptians. Promises that are difficult to keep in a country undermined by an unprecedented economic crisis and exposed to the risk of default on its foreign debt.
Ravaged by the war in Ukraine, the tourism sector, a pillar of the country’s economy, is at half-mast. After suffering post-Mubarak political instability and the pandemic, the number of Russian and Ukrainian tourists has plummeted, representing between 35% and 40% of annual clients, according to local figures. Another consequence of the conflict, which is weighing down the economy, is the increase in the price of wheat, of which Egypt is the world’s leading importer and which previously came mainly from Russia and Ukraine.
Ten years after coming to power, Egypt and its 105 million people, who rely on Saudi financial support, remain poverty-stricken.
Egypt, key ally for the West
However, on the international scene, the former head of military intelligence is seen as a guarantor of regional stability and security. Ignoring its human rights violations, Western countries consider it an indispensable ally in a chaotic Middle East.
More so today, when the cards have been reshuffled by the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip since the terrorist attacks of October 7. Hamas hostages released during the week-long truce in Gaza headed to Egypt. It is also through the Rafah border crossing, under Egyptian control, that humanitarian aid passes to the Palestinian coastal strip.
In 2014, the pragmatic Abdelfatah al-Sisi kept a low profile as the West protested against what was seen as a coup to seize power. The United States and the Europeans congratulated him the day after his victory was announced, although they insisted then on the need to respect human rights as soon as possible.
In response, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, supported since his arrival to power by the Gulf monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia, has shown great closeness with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. In November 2014, a month after the freeze of US economic and military aid to Cairo – which the Obama Administration justified by the “lack of progress on human rights in Egypt” – the Kremlin announced that it would deliver security systems anti-aircraft defense to Egypt and that he was discussing the delivery of planes and helicopters to the army.
A skilled strategist, the former marshal knows that the West will not be able to turn its back for long on the most populous of the Arab countries, which is both a strategic intermediary in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and a key ally in the fight against terrorism.
In fact, the jihadist threat and the geostrategic interests of the great powers have ended up tilting the positions of some and others, especially that of the United States, as with the arrival to power of Donald Trump in 2016. “I want the whole world to know “We clearly support President Sisi, he has done a fantastic job in a very difficult context,” declared the American billionaire during Abdelfatah al-Sisi’s first visit to Washington.
In October 2017, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that he did not want to “lecture” respect for human rights to the Egyptian president, who was on an official visit to France.
“President Sisi has a challenge: the stability of his country, the fight against terrorist movements and violent religious fundamentalism,” explained the French president in his first meeting with his Egyptian counterpart since his election. “This is the context in which he must govern, and we cannot ignore it.”
Between 2010 and 2019, Egypt imported French weapons worth €7.7 billion, according to the French Parliament. In 2015, it became the first foreign country to buy Rafale fighter jets from France, with an order for 24 fighters.
Sinai, the rock of security in Sisi’s boots
Like each of his predecessors in the military, Abdelfatah al-Sisi is obsessed with the acquisition of modern weapons and the security of his borders. Even more so when its direct neighbors – Libya, Sudan, Israel and the Gaza Strip – are all affected by an ongoing conflict or a chaotic internal situation.
Regarding internal security, Egypt continues to face a jihadist insurgency in the Sinai, a peninsula located in the northeast of the country. According to the opposition, this permanent threat is being used by the authorities to restrict civil liberties.
In 2018, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi launched a vast “anti-terrorist” operation in this area, where radical cells proliferate, some of which have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group. In vain, the Sinai remains a security puzzle for Cairo. And another broken promise for Abdelfatah al-Sisi.
This text was adapted from its original in French.
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