HE The presidential elections in the United States are approaching. In November Americans will decide who will be the new president. There is still speculation regarding the chances of Joe Biden repeating or the Republican candidate, most likely Donald Trump, winning the race. He has already spoken about this Allan Lichtman, famous for having correctly predicted almost every election result since 1984.
Called “the keys to the White House”, Lichtman developed a formula through which he predicts what the outcome of the elections will be, and in most cases his predictions have been correct. Their method consists of answering thirteen questions, true or false, to establish an indicator of who will be the winner in the elections. All questions are asked with respect to both candidates.
According to their technique, President Biden currently has a slight advantage, since he has obtained five of the keys, while his opponent Donald Trump only has three. However, it is important to say that there are still five keys at play, so circumstances could change in the coming months.
According to an article by Fox News, the keys that Lichtman uses to predict the next president of the United States They include: party mandate, race, incumbency, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandals, military failure, foreign policy, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
Allan Lichtman is evaluating the chances of success of both candidates.
Reasons why Joe Biden would have an advantage for the 2024 United States elections
According to the method used by Allan Lichtman, the reasons why President Joe Biden currently has an advantage over his challenger is that the fact of being in power automatically gives you a point.
Another reason why the Democrat would currently be in the lead is that he does not appear to have any major third party or independent primary challenge, i.e. has no competition in the democratic party.
On the other hand also He has achieved points for achieving real economic growth per capita during his mandate equal to or greater than average growth compared to previous mandates. In addition to having implemented various policy changes during his presidency.
But there is still a long way to go and, based on this formula, Trump would also have points because his party has a majority in the House of Representatives. Furthermore, according to the analysis, Biden is a person lacking charisma and has not had significant success in foreign or military affairs.
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