With the right very close in the polls, the prime minister of Portugal, the socialist António Costa, fights for his permanence in office in this Sunday’s early legislative elections, in which the far right can advance considerably.
The polling places will remain open from 8:00 am GMT (5:00 am Brasília time) until 19:00 pm GMT (16:00 pm Brasília time). An hour later the exit polls will be released.
“We have overcome austerity and stagnation, we are on the way to defeat the pandemic and on Sunday we will also overcome this political crisis to give stability to the country”, said on Friday, at the closing act of the campaign, Prime Minister Costa, who has been in power since 2015.
The 60-year-old head of government expresses pride in having “turned the page on budgetary austerity” applied by the right after the global financial crisis with the historic alliance formed in 2015 with the parties of the radical left, the Left Bloc and the communists.
But when the minority government also aimed to “turn the page on the pandemic” with a record vaccination rate and the release of European economic stimulus funds, its allies rejected the draft 2022 budget, prompting the call of early elections.
When the voting date was announced three months ago, the Socialist Party (PS) was 13 points clear in the polls over the main opposition formation, the Social Democratic Party (PSD).
– “Disenchantment” –
But the advantage has all but evaporated in recent weeks. The PS fluctuates between 35-36% of devotee intentions in the polls, against 33% for the PSD, led by Rui Rio, former mayor of the city of Porto. The difference is so small that the research institutes point to a “technical tie”.
With one in 10 Portuguese in quarantine, the level of participation in elections, the third organized in Portugal during the pandemic, is another factor of uncertainty.
“Rui Rio’s progress in the polls shows that the population wants change,” Paulo Faria, 49, a restaurant owner, told AFP.
“The government’s balance sheet is not very good, but with the covid one cannot expect much more”, said Isabel Rodrigues, a 50-year-old resident of Lisbon.
“Despite some disenchantment with the Socialist Party, most voters believe that Costa has more competence and experience to govern than Rio, a 64-year-old economist praised for his sincerity and authenticity,” explains political scientist Marina Costa Lobo.
– “Complicated” alliances –
After the elections, Portugal’s political future should be “unstable”, says analyst Antonio Costa Pinto, from the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon.
“The viability of a PS or PSD government will depend on the abstention of the other major party, especially for the quick approval of an economic stimulus budget”, he predicts.
For both the left and the right, it will be difficult for moderate parties to negotiate support from the extremes of a more fragmented Parliament, where the far-right Chega party, led by André Ventura, could be the third force with 6% of the votes.
If Costa is re-elected, he could try to rebuild the alliance of the left, despite the failure of the last budget, provoked according to him by the “irresponsibility” of his former allies, who demanded more actions in favor of public service and the recovery of purchasing power.
And if Rio wins the dispute, it will have to count on the support of liberals who hope, like Chega, to confirm the strong progression predicted by the polls.
With only one deputy in the current parliament, liberals would be easier to convince Rio that the Chega party, a possible partner in a very volatile coalition with an anti-system discourse.
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