NIt wasn’t the attack on Kiev that was talked about so much in Washington that Putin chose as the opening move in his attempt to reorganize (Eastern) Europe, but recognition of the breakaway territories in Donbass. This shows that, at least for the moment, he is staying true to an old maxim that has shaped his actions in other conflicts: he tries to keep his costs low and exploit his opponent’s weaknesses. The American President himself had made it public weeks ago that the West was at odds as to how to react to incidents below an open war.
It has always been unlikely that Putin would leave the (still political) battlefield he opened last fall without gaining ground. The formal recognition of the two breakaway “People’s Republics” in eastern Ukraine, which have so far been controlled from Moscow, is one such gain, albeit a relatively small one.
But Putin is keeping other options open: Deploying “peacekeeping forces” to the separatist areas would create a new front line in an area where fighting has been going on for years, with Russian and Ukrainian soldiers facing each other directly. Incidents can easily be provoked here.
The fact that Putin’s courtiers have publicly brought up the idea of further expanding the borders of the two regions shows a possible direction of attack. And of course there are still large Russian formations on the Ukrainian borders to the north, south and east. The danger of war has not been averted.
This can also be seen in Putin’s revanchist speech on Monday evening. The contempt he again expressed there for the Ukrainian nation and the leadership in Kiev was certainly not only intended as a message to the home crowd.
Equality should be the goal
The speech should be read carefully in the Western European capitals, which have been preaching a settlement with Putin for so long. Denying another people the right to statehood and linking this with hints of an invasion or a coup has nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with the principles that were fortunately anchored in Europe’s order after the Cold War. The goal should not be the subjugation of other peoples, but equality and self-determination.
Whether Putin can continue to quench his thirst for land and power will also depend on the West’s reaction. The first statements were surprisingly hesitant. A few sanctions against (local) officials, as initially announced by Washington and Brussels, will neither make an impression in the Kremlin nor do they do justice to the cause. The fact that Chancellor Olaf Scholz put Nord Stream 2 on hold is a step in the right direction.
Putin is carving out a second piece of land from Ukraine, a forced change in the territorial status quo in Europe. If he really were to send “peacekeeping troops” to the Donbass at some point, that would also be a military crossing of the border that the West has always warned him about. If all of this were only answered weakly, then with a high probability the rest of Ukraine is also lost.
During this phase, Putin again humiliated the Europeans, most recently the French President. With the recognition of the “People’s Republics”, the Minsk peace process is finally over. It never brought about a solution, but it was at least a diplomatic vehicle for European influence. From the start, Putin made it clear that he considered the Europeans second-rate and was only interested in talks with Washington anyway.
The western camp should not be divided by this. Europe has a fundamental interest in this conflict not being settled on Russian terms. It’s about the house rules on our own continent and now increasingly also about securing the eastern flank. Europeans are Russia’s largest trading partners, not the United States. It is up to them how high Putin’s costs really will be.
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