He Economic Package 2024includes the initiative of Income Lawthe project of Federation Expenditure Budget (PEF) and the General Criteria of Economic Policy.
The latter projects the main macroeconomic variables, such as, for example, that the mexican economy It will grow between 2.5 and 3.5% by 2024, an inflation of 3.8%, oil at $56.7 with a production of 1.98 million barrels per day (mbd), TC of $17.6 per dollar and an interest rate of 9.5%.
But what would happen if these variables are not met? For example, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank estimate that Mexico will grow between 1.5% and 1.9%, well below the estimate Tax authoritiesin this case, the income expected and therefore, the collection.
Another example, it is estimated that the production of Petroleum It will be 1.98 mbd, but the average of the last 5 years has been 1.77 mbd, this is 217 thousand barrels below, which could generate a shortfall of 80,000 million pesos and cause cuts in the program or an increase in debt.
But, if the variables were met, the Federal government would have 9.1 billion pesos, of which 55% are taxes and 19% is financingThat is, 1.7 trillion pesos will be public debt for the following year, which is added to the 14.8 trillion pesos of accumulated debt, which gives us a total of 16 trillion pesos, an increase of 59% in López’s six-year term. Obrador, for those who continue to believe that the country is not being put into debt.
Another 14% of income will come from the sale of goods and the provision of services, 6% from contributions from social Security and the other 6% from transfers, uses, rights, products and improvements.
Regarding expenditures, 2024, perhaps because it is an election year, President It will have the largest checkbook in history, 9.1 trillion pesos, which means an additional 766,398 million pesos by 2023, an increase of 9.2%.
The Special Concurrent Program (PEC) brings 440,594 million pesos and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER), 74,110 million pesos.
It should be noted that from 2018 to 2024, the PEF It has increased 72%, while SADER’s resources grew only 2.8%. As can be seen, the abandonment of the field is not due to lack of resources, but due to the lack of importance that the Federal Government has given it.
As proof, there are the wheat producers, who 4 months after threshing are still waiting for the Guarantee Price of $6,938 or the slowness of Segalmex to pay the corn.
Returning to the budget, how do you explain that Non-Sectorized Entities will increase their budget by 732%? or the Ministry of Energy 291%, the National Defense 132%, the Navy 72% or the Government 38%.
While Tourism had 99% of its resources cut and They took 54% from the Ministry of Healthwith which They send the health system to intensive care and we move further away from Denmark.
For Sinaloa 7,326 million pesos are considered for the Santa Maria Dam$2,698 million pesos for the irrigation canals of the Picachos Dam50 million pesos for the aqueduct to Concord and 1,060 million pesos for the road to Tayoltite.
However, at the national level, only 12,534 million pesos are allocated for the Guarantee Price Program, which will be insufficient to organize the market and compensate producers, given the fall in prices and the increase in imports.
For Health, 3,506 million pesos were labeled, a reduction of 15% compared to 2018.
Therefore, I ask you, dear reader, do you agree that they take 113,000 million pesos from the Health sector and that they assign 120,000 million pesos to the Mayan Train?
More from the same author:
#PEF #send #Health #Sector #intensive #therapy