Panama Canal returns to ‘normal’ by increasing daily ship crossings to 36 after the crisis caused by the severe drought

The Panama Canal begins this Sunday to allow the passage of 36 ships per day, the ideal number of transits per day that returns the transoceanic route to relative “normality” in a year in which crossings have been increasing after being cut back due to the severe drought.

“Regarding traffic, again starting this September 1st (…) we will have 36 transits per day as was established before the crisis in July 2023, (when) we had approximately 36 to 38 transits per day. That is the normal average,” Panama Canal Hydrology Manager Ayax Murillo told EFE.

On July 30, 2023, the Panama Canal reduced ship transits to 32 due to the El Niño phenomenon, which lengthened the dry season by abruptly decreasing rainfall. The route applied new restrictions over the following months, reaching 22 ships per day last November.

At first it was said that Traffic restrictions would have an impact of 800 million dollars on toll revenues in the coffers of the highway, a drop that would be partially offset by revenue from other services.

However, despite this serious situation caused by the climate crisis, the worst-case scenario, which was 18 in February, was never reached, since with the improvement in the levels of the lakes that serve the waterway, the Canal was gradually restoring daily crossings.

The improvement in this situation is due to the arrival of a rainy season with abundant rainfall, which has raised the levels of the Gatún and Alajuela lakes, the two that supply the road.

Until last Friday, Gatún recorded 85.7 feet and Alajuela 217.4 feet, respectively, both within a stable range according to the canal’s website.

Gatun Lake, the largest, has an operating level of 87.5 feet, while Alajuela Lake is at 252 feet. Both reservoirs reached very low levels: 80 feet in the middle of last year and 205 feet last May, each.

Under normal conditions, such as those currently in place, the number of ships passing through the Panama Canal per day is between 35 and 36. If this scenario continues, the number of ships passing through the Canal per day could continue to be 36 during the next dry season (from mid-December to April), according to the canal’s hydrology manager.

“We make a projection and by establishing this strategy, those 36 daily transits will be maintained during the dry season 2025 as long as we finish the year filling both reservoirs. It is very important to put the conditional (to see if) the rainy season continues,” said Murillo.

‘We must be cautiously optimistic’

Although this situation may be improving, Murillo prefers to remain cautious: “The transit of ships is normal, but it is important to stress that, at least in August, rainfall, the amount of rain accumulated at the source, will end up being around 25-30% below the historical average.”

“And so far in 2024, rainfall is around 10% deficient. That is to say, in terms of water supply to the basin, we are not yet in a deficit district and both reservoirs are recovering,” he added.

The Panama Canal has been facing climate variability for more than two decades. However, The recent prolonged drought worsened the problem, with 160 vessels now on hold due to these transit restrictions, compared to around 45 at present.

To address the water crisis, the Canal plans to build a new reservoir in an area called Río Indio.

The project, which is already being studied by the authorities, is worth more than 1.2 billion dollars, to which 400 million more would be added for “sustainability”, and it would take about six years to be ready.