Floods caused by monsoon rains, which began in early June in Pakistan, have killed 1,061 people, according to a new toll issued Monday by the National Disaster Management Authority.
The floods affected more than 33 million people, or more than 14 percent of the country’s population, while causing complete destruction or damage to about one million homes, according to the government.
The authority indicated that the floods destroyed more than 80,000 hectares of agricultural land, while 3,400 km of roads and 157 bridges were washed away.
For his part, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shahbaz Sharif, confirmed that the number of people affected by the floods has reached 33 million, which is an estimated 15 percent of the country’s population.
He suggested that the losses resulting from these floods may reach the levels of losses left by the 2010-2011 floods, making them the worst ever.
Officials in Pakistan believe that climate change is the reason behind these severe floods.
But some believe that the poor level of planning by local governments was the main reason behind the exacerbation of the damage caused by that natural disaster, as buildings were being built in areas most at risk of seasonal flooding.
A looming food crisis
While it is too early to assess the actual losses of the disaster, as the country’s agricultural sector is estimated to contribute about 23 percent of the gross domestic product.
The Pakistani Express Tribune newspaper reported that the repercussions of the floods may include rising imports, declining exports, and rising inflation, which will undermine the government’s efforts to confront headwinds at the macroeconomic level.
“Based on our preliminary estimates, the current account deficit could rise by $4.4 billion (about 1 percent of GDP) — assuming no countermeasures, while about 30 percent of the CPI (inflation) basket is at risk of higher prices, Quoted from a report by GS Global Research.
This situation may force the government to import additional quantities of cotton worth 2.6 billion dollars, and wheat worth 900 million dollars, and the government of Pakistan will lose textile exports worth one billion dollars, and these losses amount to about 4.5 billion dollars (1.08 percent of GDP) in The current fiscal year 2022-2023.
Because of the floods, the report expected consumers to face a shortfall in the supply of basic staples in household groceries such as onions, tomatoes, chili peppers, etc.
Textiles
The most affected crop is cotton, as farmers produced 8 million bales in the previous fiscal year, and the bale is the unit of measurement in the weight of cotton and is equivalent to 227 kilograms.
However, this year’s harvest is expected to be much weaker compared to previous years, amid heavy rains in Sindh.
Assuming that the country will import cotton to meet 80 percent of demand this year, the import bill is likely to exceed $4.4 billion (+144 percent on an annual basis) per year. Finance 2023.
On the other hand, the unavailability of imported raw cotton or other unprocessed textiles will negatively affect the country’s textile exports.
It is also expected that rice will suffer severe damage due to floods, as rice is among the few crops in which the cultivated area has increased significantly in the past two years (about 20 percent). Rice exports amount to about $2.5 billion.
Since it is believed that the water from the floods can take two to three months to dry up, which may delay the sowing of wheat seeds. The import bill for 15 percent of the wheat needs of 30 million tons amounts to $1.7 billion in the current fiscal year.
Besides crops, more than 500,000 head of livestock were reported to have died in the floods. This will add to the burden on rural people, who are already suffering from high diesel and fertilizer prices, and lead to a shortage of milk supplies.
Furthermore, livestock shortages, along with the potential for disease outbreaks among livestock, can also cause meat to become scarce.
This is in addition to wheat, edible oil, milk and meat, whose weight in the consumer price index (inflation) basket is estimated at 18 percent, which will lead to a rise in the food inflation rate to 28 percent, the highest level in 13 years.
It is noteworthy that the monsoon rains, which usually last from June to September, are essential for the irrigation of crops and water resources in the Indian subcontinent, but they carry annually a number of tragedies and destruction.
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