01/17/2024 – 10:52
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) raised its expectation for the supply of liquid fuels in Brazil in 2024 by 120 thousand barrels per day (bpd), to an average of 4.3 million bpd, in a monthly report published this Wednesday -Friday, 17. The result represents an increase of 200 thousand bpd compared to the previous year, but the cartel considers that “increased costs in the offshore market and inflation could also continue to delay projects” and put pressure on the growth of supply in the short term.
In the report, OPEC also updated its estimates for the year 2023 and included, for the first time, projections for 2025. The cartel increased the estimate for 2023 by 40 thousand barrels per day, to 4.1 million bpd, and projected acceleration of production in 2025, at 4.4 million bpd.
According to OPEC, Brazil's liquid fuel production rose again by 149,000 bpd in November, to a record level of 4.4 million bpd, in stronger growth than expected in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Oil alone advanced 136 thousand bpd in the monthly comparison, at 3.7 million bpd. Production of liquefied natural gas remained practically stable, at 80 thousand bpd.
GDP
The cartel also revised its estimates for Brazilian economic growth, increasing the expectation for growth in Brazil's Gross Domestic Product in 2023 from 2.5% to 2.9%.
OPEC also raised its projection for Brazilian GDP growth in 2024, from 1.2% to 1.4%, and predicts an acceleration of growth to 1.5% in 2025.
According to the report, Brazil's growth remained stable until the end of 2023, despite the slowdown in the dynamics of economic activity and expectations of a further slowdown in 2024.
Despite this, OPEC believes that the reduction in the Selic rate to 10% by the end of 2024 and a slowdown in inflation to around 3.5%, close to the BC of Brazil's target, should favor a resumption of growth strength.
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