The Omicron variant could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths in England over the next 5 months if no new anti-covid measures are adopted. This is the alarm raised by the experts of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) who have developed a model relating to the spread of the variant of the country in the first part of 2022. As reported by Sky News, the experts believe that Omicron could lead to a numbers of infections and hospitalizations higher than that recorded during the wave of January 2021. London has just launched a new tightening, with plan B announced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, with an extension of the obligation to wear a mask and smart working.
In the best scenario, the variant would cause a peak of over 2,000 daily hospitalizations, with a total of 175,000 patients and 24,700 deaths between December 1, 2021 and April 30, 2022. This scenario is linked to the hypothesis that Omicron does not escape the vaccine and booster doses prove to be extremely effective. Additional measures, compared to those just launched, would reduce the impact of the variant: with the closure of indoor entertainment venues and with limits on the capacity of certain facilities and events, hospitalizations could be reduced by over 50,000 units and the deaths of 7,600.
The worst-case scenario – with Omicron able to dribble vaccines even after third doses – without further measures, 492,000 hospitalizations and 74,800 deaths would be risked over 5 months.
In this scenario, the experts estimate that stronger measures may be required to keep the number of hospital admissions below the January 2021 peak.
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