Covid variants and sub-variants, Omicron 2 and in particular 4 and 5, in the spotlight of experts for symptoms and contagiousness. The United States fears a wave of Covid in the autumn driven by sub-variants: according to the Biden administration, there could be 100 million infections from Sars-CoV-2 in the States and a potentially significant wave of deaths next autumn-winter . While Omicron 2 (BA.2) continues to represent the majority of new infections in the US, the sub-variant BA.2.12.1 is rapidly gaining ground and may soon become the most common strain. Meanwhile, we also look at the other two highly transmissible variants, BA.4 and BA.5, which have fueled a recent wave of infections in South Africa.
“The hope of the scientific authority at the international level is that in the autumn we could have a new” anti-Covid “vaccine adapted to the Omicron” variant of Sars-CoV-2, explained the Minister of Health. Roberto Speranza, in an interview with SkyTg24. “We do not yet have certain dates written on the calendar, but the prevailing hypothesis is that in the fall, we hope for the start” of the season, “we may have a vaccine adapted to the new variants” of the virus.
BASSETTI – “Surely Omicron 4 and 5 seem to evade the immunity produced by” anti-Covid “vaccines and also the natural immunity” of those who have already had the infection, “so they can represent an element of concern for a potential increase in infections next autumn. Probably “these sub-variants” are destined to become preponderant over the others. It is probable that soon they will take over in Italy too, maybe not exactly this season, maybe a little later “is the scenario outlined at Adnkronos Health by Matteo Bassetti, director of the Infectious Diseases Clinic at the San Martino Polyclinic in Genoa.
According to the expert, without falling into “the terrorism of variants”, the problem of an eventual autumn wave that is significant in terms of numbers, a topic which is also debated overseas, must be posed. “Although – he explains – it must be said that in South Africa, where in some way these variants have now become predominant, especially the 4 and 5, the data tell us that there is an increase in infections, but in terms of severity we are facing a disease that is normally milder than that which occurred with the other Omicron variants, with a shorter duration of hospitalization and fewer severe pictures. In any case it is evident that this is an element of concern, not so much for today obviously , how much for tomorrow “.
CLEMENTS – “It is impossible to say at this moment” to what extent a possible wave of Covid infections will be in the next colder season, “because there are no elements to support that there could be an epidemiological turn of this type – is the analysis by Massimo Clementi, director of the Laboratory of Microbiology and Virology of the Vita-Salute San Raffaele University in Milan – What is certain is that the last two sub-variants of Omicron “, Omicron 4 and 5,” have an extraordinary capacity for diffusion. this is not new, because the variants have always been distinguished by the fact of spreading more and more, the relatively new aspect is that in some way they also tend to escape the previous antibody response “.
The expert highlights at Adnkronos Salute the crux of the potential for immune evasion shown by the ‘new entry’ Omicron. The contours of this are being explored, but Clementi observes that, faced with similar characteristics, “it would take a firmer, more intense antibody response to block them”. The entry on the scene of these sub-variants “makes things a little more complex, but it also makes us understand what the right strategy will be: that of proposing vaccination, at least for the frail, starting from September and with a possibly tailor-made vaccine done on these variants “.
GISMONDO – “As regards the sub-variants of Omicron”, for example the Omicron “4 and 5, we have absolutely no concrete data to be able to hypothesize anything – comments Maria Rita Gismondo, director of the Laboratory of clinical microbiology, virology and diagnostics of bioemergencies of the Sacco hospital in Milan – Certainly in autumn we expect a greater presence of the “Sars-CoV-2 virus,” because this is the case for most respiratory viruses. But I believe that creating this climate of constant alarm can only harm “.
PREGLIASCO – Does the US envisage an autumn-winter wave of 100 million Covid cases due to Omicron sub-variants? “Comparing the data to our population”, which is about 5 and a half times lower than that of the United States (almost 60 million against over 330 million), “for Italy it would mean calculating almost 20 million cases”, over 18 million for accuracy: about 30% of the population. The virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco, a professor at the State University of Milan, comes to terms with Adnkronos Salute after the alarm raised by the Biden administration. But be careful to read this figure close to 20 million which seems abnormal, warns the expert. “We must first of all consider – he specifies – that the real dimensions of the contagion are already escaping us today, because the estimates tell us that the daily cases are 2-2.5 times more than those detected by the bulletins, and therefore probably 40-50% of the population has become infected in some way. Furthermore, we keep in mind that the vast majority of infections are asymptomatic “.
Having said that, beyond the always complicated numerical predictions, on the basis of the trend observed in South Africa (with Omicron 4 and 5) and States (with the ‘daughter’ of Omicron 2 BA.2.12.1), Pregliasco confirms the ‘opportunity to “evaluate whether to revise upwards in the near future the expectations we had for the coming winter, imagining a heaviness of Covid-19 a little greater than expected”. All this not to create alarmism, points out the medical director of Irccs Galeazzi in Milan, but to push us to “absolutely strengthen in Italy the ability to identify and monitor new variants and sub-variants, therefore the capacity to react”. Sars-CoV-2 reiterates the virologist, he has not yet completely calmed down or cooled down, and shows “an invasiveness associated above all with its instability and therefore its ability to change”.
#Omicron #autumn #awaits #Bassetti #Clementi #Gismondo #Pregliasco