98 million Mexicans they will have the opportunity to vote the next June 2nd to designate the person who will chair the executive power of our country and another 20,078 charges (628 federal and 19,450 local). Campaign expenses and abstentionism are two key operational elements for Claudia Sheinbaumthe candidate of the alliance “Let's continue making history” made up of the parties Morena, PVEM and PT; advantage from start to finish alliance “Strength and heart for Mexico” with Xochitl Galvez as a candidate.
The campaign spending provided by the INE to Morena, PVEM and PT together 6 years ago was equivalent to 43% of the sum provided to the PAN, PRI and PRD. That was enough for them to obtain 54% more votes than the three parties combined. For these elections, the budget for “Let's keep making history” goes from having been 43% to 106% of what was granted to “Strength and heart for Mexico.” A larger budget means a greater margin of victory, not only in the presidential election; also in Congress.
Today, Morena governs in 21 states, the PAN in 5, the PRI in 2, the MC in 2, the PVEM in 1 and the PES in 1. Abstentionism seems insurmountable for “Fuerza y corazón por México” if we assume that The party that governs the entities would serve as a shield to maintain the same distribution of votes as in the 2018 elections. The table below shows that in the states where the “Let's continue making history” alliance governs, abstentionism is 35.9% vs. 41.9%. % of the states governed by “Fuerza y Corazón por México”. By gender, by age, or both, the advantage of “Let's continue making history” averages 6%.
However, “Fuerza y Corazón por México” still has a lot of life. In the last four elections for president, there were alternations in three. Yes, Mexico does not forget the demagogue harangue that proclaimed the end of the violence caused by the “pulverization of the cartels” of FCH and the end of the corruption exacerbated by “the white house” of EPN; AMLO did not comply. The federal entities that entrusted the vote to Morena and the parties in his alliance continue to be poor and violent as can be seen in the following table:
Income according to ENIGH 2022 figures. In a report from the Electoral Laboratory published this Tuesday, April 2, it reports 27 candidates murdered so far from 2023 to 2024 and 24 people supporting candidates or elections who were also murdered. The candidates were active in Morena (10), Pan (5), PRI, MC and PVEM (3 each), PRD (2) and PT (1).
Dear reader,
“Strength and Heart for Mexico” promises a country without fear. It would be necessary to demand for statistics that the latent reality of reconciling Mexico will never be deserted.
Grab a ride.
More from the same author:
- Of women and hopes
- AMLO's promises
- Pre-campaigns, inter-campaigns and campaigns, the long arm of the INE… and Morena
#statistics #desert #realities
