Mathias Cormann, Secretary General of the OECD
OECD, autumn economic forecasts: the data
In the’Economic outlook the Parisian organization claims that the Italian growth in 2023 it will be 0.2% down from 1.2% in June. It will weigh energy shockthe worst since the 1970s, which is slowing down global growth: this year GDP will rise to 3.1% but in 2023 the estimate will drop to 2.2%.
In detail, as far as Italy is concerned, the OECD estimates one GDP growth to the 3.7% in 2022, followed however by a slowdown at the 0.2% in the 2023before recovering moderately to 1% in 2024. The organization argues that “the high energy prices will act as a drag on output in energy-intensive industries, while real incomes will decline due to high inflation and rising interest rates.”
The OECD then sees a “modest export growth” due to weak growth in demand. The OECD also forecasts a contraction in employment in 2023 while inflation is estimated to decrease “only gradually from around 10% at the end of 2022”. effects of stiffening of monetary policy by the ECB “will be partly offset by higher public investments linked to the Pnrr” concludes the OECD.
OECD, Italy’s debt drops by 146.5% in 2022
Instead, it will go down Italian public debt: the OECD has estimated a drop of 155% of the GDP touched in 2020 by Covid al 146.5% this year, to then drop to 144.4% in 2023 and 143.3% in 2024. The Organization also estimates a deficit in 2022 to 5.6% which should decrease in the following two years to 4.7 and 3.8% of GDP
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