Concerns are rising after Russian forces attacked and seized control of the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, in southern Ukraine and the largest in Europe. In addition, to the bombardments and assaults by the Kremlin troops from different fronts is added the threat of its own atomic arsenal after President Vladimir Putin put his country’s deterrence forces on high alert.
After the Russian military failed to take full control of Ukraine in the first days of launching the large-scale attack on its neighboring country, military experts have been warning that Kremlin forces will use increasingly brutal tactics.
British intelligence pointed out that Moscow found in the Ukrainian Army greater resistance than expected. While the containment gives hope to Volodymyr Zelensky’s soldiers facing the aggression, the result could also be a double-edged sword for Kiev.
“We are only in the early days of this, and Putin has many cards to play (…) It is too early to be triumphant, and there are many Russian capabilities that are not yet used,” said the US ambassador to NATO, Douglas Lute.
Russia insists that its objective is to “demilitarize” Ukraine while advancing its aggression towards larger cities, with an eye on Kiev, the capital, the main political and military strategic point. In the onslaught, Moscow has launched bombing raids on residential areas and captured nuclear power plants.
Disaster in Zaporizhia would be “six times worse” than Chernobyl
The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant was hit by Russian bombardment on March 4, causing a fire and raising fears of a disaster that could affect all of central Europe with effects for decades, even greater than those caused by the disaster in Chernobyl in 1986.
Zaporizhia is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Unlike Chernobyl, whose explosion took place in a reactor, the plant now controlled by Russian troops has six nuclear reactors and has a total capacity of nearly 6,000 megawatts.
If it explodes, it would cause a disaster “six times worse” than Chernobyl, Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom said.
The country’s foreign minister, Dmitro Kuleba, has estimated consequences “ten times greater” than those of the 1986 catastrophe in that country.
Despite the fact that the Zaporizhia nuclear plant has a different design from Chernobyl and greater protection measures, nuclear safety experts and the International Atomic Energy Agency warn that waging war in and around such facilities presents extreme risks.
One major concern, raised by the country’s state nuclear regulator, is that if the fighting cuts off power to the nuclear plant, it would be forced to use less reliable diesel generators to provide emergency power to power systems. operational cooling. A failure of those systems could lead to a disaster similar to that at Japan’s Fukushima plant, when a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011 destroyed cooling systems and caused meltdowns at three reactors.
The consequence, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, would be widespread and dire. “If there is an explosion, that is the end for everyone. The end of Europe. The evacuation of Europe (…) Only urgent action by Europe can stop the Russian troops. Do not allow the death of Europe due to a catastrophe in a nuclear power plant, ”said the president in an emotional speech.
The fire caused this Friday during the assault was controlled. Rafael Grossi, director general of the IAEA, the UN nuclear watchdog, explained that the flames occurred in a building next to the reactors and not in a reactor itself.
David Fletcher, a professor at the University of Sydney’s School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering who previously worked at UK Atomic Energy, pointed out that even shutting down the reactors would not help if the cooling system failed.
“The real concern is not a catastrophic explosion like what happened at Chernobyl, but the damage to the cooling system that is required even when the reactor is shut down. It was this type of damage that led to the Fukushima accident,” he maintained.
Other experts are more cautious about possible threats. Mark Wenman of Imperial College London told the BBC that the structures at the Zaporizhia plant were designed to “withstand extreme external events, both natural and man-made, such as a plane crash or explosions.”
Fears of an escalation to nuclear weapons by the Kremlin
These concerns add to President Vladimir Putin’s announcement on February 28 that he has put his country’s nuclear deterrent forces on high alert.
Russia is the country with the greatest atomic power in the world, even ahead of the United States.
It has 1,625 nuclear warheads, 2,870 warheads in storage and 1,760 awaiting dismantling, for a total of 6,255.
The United States, the nation that comes closest to having that atomic arsenal, has 1,800 deployed warheads, 2,000 in storage, and 1,770 awaiting dismantling, for a total of 5,500.
But how real would Putin’s warnings be on this matter? Analysts point out that he is an unpredictable leader with a speech that is sometimes confusing. Days before attacking Ukraine he repeated that he would not invade his neighboring country, in fact he still calls the offensive a “special operation” of demilitarization.
Some experts indicate that this is a Kremlin option that cannot be ruled out. They highlight that among the four situations approved in the country to resort to this weaponry, one is if the Russian State itself is in danger, something that would be subject to the perspective of Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s strategies in Syria and Chechnya
In his column for ‘The New York Times’, David Leonardt highlights that the Russian Army has an established strategy to seize cities that show the greatest resistance, one that it has used in both Syria and Chechnya.
The strategy revolves around firing missiles and bombs into residential neighbourhoods, both to destroy infrastructure and terrify civilians into flight, before advancing on the city by land.
Many analysts predict that Putin could take a similar approach on Ukrainian soil, putting the lives of thousands of civilians at risk.
“A major fear among US military officials is that Russia, having suffered initial setbacks, will unleash a major missile barrage and airstrikes not only on Kiev, but also on other cities where there is heavy resistance,” says Eric Schmitt, a reporter specializing in terrorism and national security.
With Reuters, AP and local media
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