NNorway has what Germany dreams of: Energy in abundance. The land of fjords has long been rich thanks to the mineral resources off its coast. The war in Ukraine and the end of Russian gas deliveries to Europe make it all the Croesus. The rise in prices, which is making industry and private households groan in this country, is making the coffers ringing there.
The Minister of Finance has just presented his forecast in Oslo: for this year he expects the state to earn the equivalent of around 120 billion euros net from the oil and gas business. Four times as much as in 2021 and a good twice as much as in 2008, which has been the measure of all things so far. Next year it should be even more.
You can get jealous. Robert Habeck, the Federal Economics Minister from the Greens, recently called for “solidarity to dampen gas prices” and mocked “moon prices” with which “friendly countries” are currently making a fortune. That was coined for Norway.
The country also pumps its gas to Great Britain, Belgium and the Netherlands through pipelines on the seabed. But no other customer buys as much gas as Germany. Conversely, no other gas supplier is as important for Germany as Norway, which has replaced the old number one, Russia. The Scandinavians have increased their delivery volume by a good third this year and now have almost twice as much as the next largest supplier.
There is no question who is the supplicant in this particular relationship and who can flex the muscles.
In Norway, as in Germany, the Social Democrats are the head of government. In September, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to Oslo specifically to cultivate relations with natural gas, door-to-door among fellow party members. The suggestion that the otherwise nice Norwegians could give their loyal customers in the south a kind of gas discount fell through. No, tak. Ain German: No, thank you.
Ringing doorknobs with the comrades in Oslo
The idea that the EU could set a common maximum price for gas purchases also never met with approval in Norway. Some countries had hoped for agreement on such a gas price cap at the meeting of European energy ministers last week. Norway is not part of the EU, the Norwegian minister came to the summit as a guest. Before his arrival, he had described a price cap as unhelpful. It came as it had to come: no cover, just the declaration of intent to coordinate better when shopping instead of outbidding each other and thus driving up the price even more.
Why are the rich Norwegians just so bulky? When asked by the FAS, the Ministry of Energy said quite monosyllabically that the state does not sell the gas itself, but rather commercial suppliers who are guided by market prices. However, they are working with partners in Europe on a joint solution for lower prices and security of supply.
That sounds cloudy. Sindre Knutsson from the consulting firm Rystad Energy in Oslo puts it in concrete terms: “Long-term contracts with a fixed price or price range agreed over a period of around five years would be in both parties’ interests. That would give the development companies planning security. In return, they could now grant a discount to the high current market price.”
This is an idea that is slowly but surely finding supporters in Berlin. So far, such long-term contracts have not met with much approval because the federal government is actually hoping to expand wind and solar power quickly and thus become less dependent on natural gas. In the worst case, Germany would be stuck with large quantities of ordered gas in four or five years.
#Norway #supplier #gas #discount #takk