Nord Stream, with sabotage, Russia-USA does not lose us but only the EU. The hypothesis

All the hypotheses about the Nord Stream explosion in the Baltic

There are many who gain from it. certainly not Europe. The explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the Baltic creates several problems. The incidents occurred near Bornholm’s territorial waters, in the Baltic Sea, but just outside the 12 nautical mile border of territorial waters, the kind of calibration one might expect from a state actor aware of the country’s NATO membership. This means that if it were ever to be ascertained it was a deliberate action by a country outside the Atlantic Alliance, this could be an attack to which one would be called to respond.

What is not immediately clear is how the attack would have been conducted. A submarine he had targeted the pipelines should have been located in the relatively shallow waters of the Baltic, where the depth rarely exceeds 100 meters. But there is no mention of submarines from countries that are investigating the incidents. Nor is the Baltic where it would make sense to deploy Losharik submarines in deep water, which could be used by the Russians to cut communication cables that run deep under the Atlantic, where waters have an average depth of around 3,500. meters.

A British military source quoted by The Guardian speculated that the mines may have been discreetly laid by a disguised commercial ship and detonated days or weeks later. This would be an operation that should have been conducted with some care, but not with particularly specialized military resources. One of the explosions measured 2.3 on the Richter scale, which Danish experts described as being in line with a powerful WWII bomb.

But beyond the dynamics, speculations are now unleashing about who did it. Yes, because practically no one thinks it was sabotage. “We faced an act of sabotage, we do not know all the details of what happened, but we clearly see that it is an act of sabotage, linked to the next step of escalation of the situation in Ukraine “, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said. The Danish premier, Mette Frederiksen, said the losses are due to “deliberate acts” and “not to an accident”. The Danish Minister of Energy and Climate, Dan Jorgensen, for his part estimated that the losses should last “at least a week”, that is, until the methane escaping from the submarine pipes is exhausted.

Russian warning thus avoiding paying for European appeals? Or US plan to sever the last link between the EU and Moscow?

The first suspicions have obviously focused on Russia. If Moscow were behind the Nord Stream explosions, Kremlin officials might think they have embarked on a nerve-wracking demonstration. But on this occasion, the stakes were relatively low. A senior Ukrainian official spoke of a Russian attack to destabilize Europe, without providing evidence. There are those who underline that the explosion represents a cause of “force majeure” that prevents the flow of gas from Russia to Europe without the possibility that the latter will bring lawsuits to ask for damages to Moscow on the deliberate closing of the taps by the Kremlin . Actions in this sense had already been undertaken in recent weeks.

But others believe that given the problems in Ukraine, the idea that Moscow dares to take a step forward by targeting Western pipelines and submarine cables in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere would be hard to believe. Instead, there are those who put forward the hypothesis of the United States. A Polish deputy even shared the image of the explosion by writing “thank you USA” on Twitter. Not ironically, given that Warsaw has always been against Nord Stream 2.

There are those who remember the phrase of Joe Biden when he warned that Nord Stream 2 would never be made. On February 7, shortly before the invasion, Biden said in a press conference: “If Russia invades … then there will be no more Nord Stream 2. We will put an end to this “. Journalist: “But how are you going to do it, exactly, given that … the project is under the control of Germany?”. Biden: “I promise you we’ll be able to do it.”

The US, which for the first time is exporting more gas than Russia to Europe, saw the pipeline at a strategic level as smoke and mirrors. Now, having cut the trade and energy link between Brussels and Moscow, they can further increase their economic and diplomatic weight. But from here to argue that the gas pipeline was bombed right by Washington it passes.

Meanwhile, there are also fears about Norwegian submarine internet cables and gas pipelines which have largely replaced Russian ones since the beginning of the war. Fundamental assets for energy supply and for the European internet connection that are exposed to other aggressive actions, by whoever they are.

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