The world is going through multiple difficulties that are inexorably interconnected and have become even more evident in the post-pandemic period. The international scenario is increasingly fragile, fragmented and polarized.
(Also Read: Russia Responds To US And European Tank Dispatch With Bombing Raids In Ukraine)
The new “normal” has tested the value of the principles of the United Nations Charter and the ability to respond to internal divisions and conflicts such as Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The path towards the humanization of globalization and the formulation of collective responses to the main challenges requires a thorough understanding of the tectonic plates that are and will be moving the planet in the coming years and decades. Among them are:
1. New geopolitics and geoeconomics:
The bipolar world and the hegemony held by a single power are in the past. We are facing the emergence of new players, ideas and global interests that will redefine the international system, in the midst of new competitions and tensions. China, Russia, India, Iran, Turkey, among others, will set the stage and the agenda, and will also have an influence at the regional level, including Latin America and the Caribbean.
2. Fragile democracies:
Paradoxically, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, our democracies and institutions face increasing disaffection and challenges such as corruption, organized crime and terrorism. Globally, there is a continuous process of setbacks, which has led to the emergence of social protests, populism and the so-called “illiberalism”. Today, approximately one third of the world’s population lives under authoritarian regimes, and the democratic gains achieved in the last 30 years – with the so-called third Huntington wave – have vanished. The erosion of social cohesion and polarization –accompanied by the spread of fake news– will set the tone. The complex political risks in Latin America are striking.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall, our democracies and institutions face increasing disaffection and challenges such as corruption, organized crime and terrorism.
3. Global food, fuel and financial crisis:
This triple crisis that occurs simultaneously is seriously affecting 1.2 billion people, leaving them in a condition of food insecurity and poverty and triggering migratory flows. The situation has been further aggravated by the consequences of the pandemic and the war.
The IMF’s economic projections are not encouraging. Global activity is experiencing a general slowdown and inflation is at its highest in decades. This will generate greater divisions between rich and poor countries, risks of crisis in emerging economies, as well as an affectation on human development indices, which to date have suffered a setback in more than 90% of the countries.
(It may interest you: Shooting attackers have a common pattern, according to a study)
4. Climate change and water:
The slow response to adaptation and mitigation of climate change, the degradation of biodiversity, the collapse of ecosystems and the significant increase in carbon emissions demand greater cooperation. The transition to green energy must be accelerated, fragmentation and deficits in natural resources such as water must be avoidedwhose scarcity is affecting more than 3,000 million people.
5. Weapons of mass destruction and use of new technologies:
Its threat not only continues, but has recently gained strength, constituting the main challenge for peace and security. It is therefore necessary to promote and modernize a new global disarmament and non-proliferation agenda, within the framework of the United Nations. For its part, the use of new technologies and the development of AI represent renewed challenges, as they are incorporated into weapons and military equipment that would have a greater range of destruction.
There is no doubt that our future depends on the ability to prioritize the values of cooperation, solidarity and multilateralism. It is key to rewind the international system and promote new leadership to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
Latin America has the moral imperative to be present in this new configuration and in the elaboration of a ‘New Social Contract’.
* President of the Colombian Council of International Relations (Cori) and former Foreign Minister (1998-2002).
** Visiting Fellow of the University of Oxford and Member of the Advisory Board of the Global South of the LSE.
#tectonic #plates #international #order