And the latest statements, those made by the European Union’s foreign policy official, Josep Borrell, on Sunday, revealed that Ukraine is in a critical situation, calling on the West to take decisive decisions, during a speech at the Munich Security Conference in which he also stressed that “there is a lot that needs to be done and more quickly.” We must increase and accelerate our military support.
The war in Ukraine dominates the atmosphere and discussions of the conference in its fifty-ninth edition. Although senior leaders of Western countries, such as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Schultz, stressed the need to continue supporting Ukraine in the face of Russia, it was clear that this support would not go as far as direct confrontation between Russia and the West, which was expressed in particular by the German chancellor. When he stressed seeking to find a balance between military support for Ukraine and the non-breakout of war with Russia.
“Draining” .. without direct confrontation
Observers believe that the positions of Macron and Schultz reveal the features of the general European approach to dealing with the Ukrainian war file in its second year, which will not differ much, according to them, from what has happened since the beginning of this war on February 24, and is based on draining Moscow into the “quagmire”. Ukraine by providing arms and various forms of support to Kiev, but without entering directly into the war with Russia.
And they considered that Borrell’s words about decisive measures to raise the pace of support for Kiev, which seems closer to the position expressed by US Vice President Kamala Harris during the conference, may collide with the fears of some European countries about the possibility of the war expanding towards the old continent, which will complicate the situation even more.
Red line
Political researcher and expert on European affairs, Maher Al-Hamdani, who resides in Berlin, said in an interview with Sky News Arabia:
- Being drawn into direct confrontation with Moscow is a red line in Germany and in various European countries due to a number of factors, most notably the imbalance of military power in favor of Russia, in addition to the lack of confidence in Berlin and other European capitals in NATO’s protection umbrella.
- The Germans, for example, remember very well the historical lesson before World War II, when Britain and France turned a blind eye to Hitler’s start to arm and strengthen his military capabilities to employ him against the communist camp led by the Soviet Union at the time, despite the existence of international treaties at the time that prevented the arming of Germany, and as a result, disaster befell the country. Due to the practices of the Nazi regime, and to receive a severe defeat that left a national and humanitarian catastrophe in Germany.
- That is why Berlin avoids getting involved again in a war with Moscow, as happened at the time, especially since it may be abandoned by the allies in NATO, as many Atlantic capitals hide behind the German wall, trying to put Berlin in the eye of the Russian storm, and pressure the Germans to send advanced military equipment such as Leopard 2 tanks. For Ukraine, while Washington hesitates, for example, to take such a step, which raises doubts among German politicians keen to avoid a direct clash with the Russians.
Conflict under control
As the writer and researcher in international relations, Tariq Sarmi, said in an interview with “Sky News Arabia”:
- It is clear that the balance of the military scale tends in favor of Moscow despite all the Western support for Kiev, and these statements calling for providing more weapons to Ukraine are pouring fuel on the fire of the war raging in the heart of Europe, and it may be understandable if it seeks to ensure a military balance between the two parties to the war in preparation. To rely on the option of negotiations and peaceful solutions, but if it means pushing for the pursuit of defeating Russia, then it does not contribute to settling the conflict, but rather fuels it.
- We are on the cusp of a second year since the outbreak of the most serious international crisis and war since the Second World War, and the longer this war lasts, the more real the danger of its expansion towards various European countries, and therefore it is more useful now to present initiatives for a peaceful solution and to give priority to diplomacy.
- Increasing the flow of Western arms to Kiev will increase the possibility of a direct confrontation between the Russian and NATO sides, and for this reason the balance that Schultz talked about seems to be not easy to achieve, but it is nonetheless given towards keeping the conflict, despite its intensity, under control and at an exact rhythm.
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