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A military economist sees time running out for Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine war. This is also why there are increasing calls for peace in the West.
Cologne – Looking at the Ukraine war It is increasingly assumed that Wladimir Putin would just play for time. Because the Kremlin boss knows that his Russia is quantitatively significantly superior to its invaded neighbor.
That's why opponents of arms deliveries to Kiev in Germany often say that this would only prolong the death and suffering indefinitely. The best thing that could happen to Ukraine would be a negotiated peace that would also allow the ruler in Moscow to save face.
Putin and the Ukraine War: “Like Hitler, he has to win in the short term”
Marcus M. Keupp turns the tables. In the Interview with the Cologne Rundschau the military economist emphasizes that the clock is ticking for Putin. And the 71-year-old has long been personally determined to be a loser.
The Freiburg native draws a comparison to the Second World War and another aggressive and inhumane dictator: Adolf Hitler. “Putin has the same problem as Hitler. He must win in the short term“, says Keupp: “Because in the long term he has no chance against the industrial potential of the West.” That’s exactly why Putin burns systems and people on the front lines in massive form.
Military expert draws comparison with World War II: “Putin is doing it like Marshal Sukov”
Keupp is convinced: “He wants a decision before the entire massive arms industry starts up in the entire Western world.” Around 80 years ago, a similar thing happened to the USA when Washington intervened to stop Hitler: “It took years to ramp up the US defense industry. The maximum was only reached in 1945, at the end of the war.”
And Putin also acted like the Soviet Union back then against Nazi Germany – even if they were initially fighting to liberate their own territory. “What Putin is doing was already done by the tsars and then by Marshal (Georgi) Zhukov in the Second World War,” recalls the lecturer at the military academy at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich: “If 30,000 fell in a wave of attacks, in the end it didn’t matter to him The survivors were able to establish themselves in new positions.”
The current Kremlin tactic of relying on mass also has consequences for Kiev: “If Russia continues like this, Ukraine will have to mobilize at some point, even if that is difficult for a democracy.” According to the 46-year-old, the country “has one active reserve of one million men”. Their time has not yet come: “At the moment it is cheaper for them to rely on wear and tear.”
Military economist Keupp sees new tactics: “Kremlin parrots are crowing loudly again”
But not least because of the billion-dollar US aid package approved in the House of Representatives after months of blockage, the sun is shining brighter again for Kiev. In addition, despite the switch to a war economy, Russia is being shown its limits, emphasizes Keupp: “Russian warfare is becoming technologically worse and worse.”
The soldiers would be sent out “with ancient T62 tanks without a turret and some in golf carts.” The reserve of almost 3,000 tanks has been used up, satellite photos show that the pipes in artillery camps are missing and the systems have been cannibalized.
Keupp estimates: “I would say that Russia can certainly continue the war in 2024 and 2025. But they are increasingly having a time problem.” For him, an indication of this is “that the Kremlin parrots are starting to crow loudly again, with the usual slogans: negotiate peace, Ukraine cannot win. And so on.” This is where the most important thing is AfD feel addressed.
Putin before the end? Expert Keupp is firmly betting on Russian defeat in the Ukraine war
Putin has already recognized that Russia will be inferior to Ukraine and its allies: “That's why he's trying to sabotage the Western logistics base by turning countries around politically and playing on the German emotional keyboard so that the Germans become afraid.”
But Keupp is certain: “If the Western logistics base keeps adding, then Russia will not only not win the war, it will lose it. With all the consequences that this has for Russia’s internal organization.”
This could mean the end of power for Putin, but it could be a service to his key supporters, Keupp notes. By ending the war. “Russia would decline economically and would have to consolidate internally again. But the rule of the Siloviki, the group that currently leads Russia, would continue,” the author outlines the way to avoid impending unrest in the country.
End of the Ukraine War: According to Keupp, Russia's strategic defeat has been certain since autumn 2023
Keupp is sure that the Ukraine war could end any day. It is in Putin's hands. However, there are doubts as to whether the seemingly all-powerful Kremlin boss would really be prepared to go down in history as the big loser who sent countless people to their deaths and, on top of that, divided two former brother states for more than a decade for his own purposes.
According to Keupp, Russia strategically lost the Ukraine war in the fall of 2023: “By then it became clear that the production rate could not keep up with the rate of attrition.” But one thing remains clear: “Putin continueseven though he actually should have called off the war in the fall of 2023.” As if he simply doesn’t want to accept that time is running against him. (mg)
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