Michigan, the first major hinge state of the United States, enters the fray in the primaries with the threat of a protest vote against Biden

“Michigan is a state that you should never take for granted,” says its governor, Gretchen Whitmer. The State, of 10 million inhabitants and which celebrates its primaries this Tuesday, is key in the path to the White House for both Joe Biden and his foreseeable Republican rival, Donald Trump. And it is one of the few pure hinge states that exist in the United States; although divided almost exactly 50%, he usually bets on the winning horse. In 2016 he leaned Republican; in 2020, by the now president. In both cases, by minimal margins. Today, the polls show a technical tie between them, although neither of their two parties is going through their best moments there.

There is no doubt that Trump and Biden will prevail in their respective primaries. The Republican is only fighting against former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. And Biden, on paper only with a congressman from Minnesota, Dean Phillips, whose name sounds familiar to very few.

But Haley has promised to move forward, despite not having won so far in any of the four states that have already held primaries. She didn't even in hers, South Carolina, where she came in below 40%. And Biden faces a campaign, promoted by leaders of the important Arab American community in Michigan, for Democrats to vote “not declared”, the equivalent of a blank vote, in this call, as a warning to change his pro-Israel policy and promote a ceasefire in Gaza. Other Arab American groups are also campaigning to “abandon Biden” and force Donald Trump to win.

Hassan, of Yemeni origin, proudly wears a sticker on his lapel that reads, in the colors of the American flag, “I voted” (“I have voted”). He has just left the Salina polling station, in the predominantly Arab town of Dearborn, where he has cast his ballot. He has voted Democratic, she says, but he has checked the “undeclared” box. Because? “Two words,” he says, raising two fingers of his hand: “Palestine.” Loop”.

Mohammed Abdullah, 68 years old and who has lived in the United States for 47 years, has also voted “not declared.” “We want a ceasefire in Gaza. We Arab Americans lean mostly towards Democrats, but this time we have mobilized to give this wake-up call. They need our votes to win, and if the war continues they won't have them. I hope they listen to us, and there can be a ceasefire soon, that the war will end, perhaps before Ramadan begins” on March 11.

On the other side of the city, at McDonald Elementary School, Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, of Lebanese origin, also signed up for “undeclared.” “I don't want Donald Trump to win in November. I know that (in his term as president) he imposed a travel ban for Muslim countries, I know that he gave the go-ahead to Jewish settlements in the West Bank and that he did nothing for the two-state solution. At the same time, people are dying in Gaza, and I wonder what could be worse? Right now we are doing what we can, voting undeclared, to try to get the Administration to change course and agree to a ceasefire. If it doesn't change before November… we'll see.”

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Governor Whitmer herself – co-chair of Biden's electoral campaign and considered a rising star within her own party – has admitted that she does not know how many “undeclared” ballots can be counted once the polls have closed, starting at 8:00 p.m. local time. (02:00 on Wednesday morning, Spanish peninsular time). But, in an interview given on Monday to the NBC television network, she acknowledged that it may be a “respectable” amount. “I think it is everyone's right to make clear what is important to them,” she added.

Wake up call

Biden will get the 140 delegates that Michigan will send to the Democratic convention in Chicago in August. But a percentage of “not declared” greater than 10% would be a wake-up call for the tenant of the White House. The campaign organizers Listen to Michigan (listen to Michigan) have set a goal of 10,000, the votes by which Trump won the state in 2016, and a relatively modest goal: four years ago, without an organization behind it, almost 20,000 undeclared votes were counted.

Abstention would also be a blow—for both the Democratic and Republican candidates—another ghost that hangs over this electoral call. Few Democratic voters say they are enthusiastic about their candidate, at 81 the oldest president in the country's history. “No one is excited about voting,” says Eve, a student on the University of Michigan-Dearborn campus who voted Democratic two years ago. “I might stay home. If in the end I am going to vote, it will be as undeclared.”

It is something that breaks the trend of recent years. The 2020 presidential elections and the 2022 midterm elections broke participation records. Young people were fundamental in this: according to a study by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Participation (Circle) at Tufts University, two years ago 36.4 % of Michigan youth, the highest percentage in the country and 13 percentage points above the average.

2.3 million people, or 30% of registered voters, participated in the primaries four years ago. On this occasion, according to Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, responsible for electoral management, before Tuesday nearly a million people had voted in advance.

Dispute between Republicans

On the Republican side, the outlook is also complicated, although there is no doubt that Trump will prevail in the battle. The Republican electoral event has two parts: the primary election this Tuesday, in which 30% of the delegates will be decided, and the state convention, similar to some caucuson March 2, which will award the remaining 70%.

And this is where the complications begin. An internal party dispute has created two factions, each of which will hold its own convention. One in the city of Grand Rapids, the other on the outskirts of Detroit.

Trump has ignored both calls, certain of his victory. Not so Haley, who has held rallies in both locations and whose campaign has invested half a million dollars in local television ads. He maintains her message: he does not plan to retire, even though polls continue to show the former president as the favorite by a very wide margin and her main donors are beginning to abandon her.

“We cannot have as a candidate someone who is going to win a primary, but who cannot win a presidential election,” Haley reiterated in the halls of a hotel in Troy, on the outskirts of Detroit, to the applause of nearly 200 people. . Her audience was made up, above all, of old-school Republicans, middle-class families, of greater ethnic variety than the almost always white faces at Trump events.

“I think Nikki Haley is someone who can unite the country. Biden is a person from the extreme left, and Trump, from the extreme right. They can't tune in to the other half of the country. I want someone moderate. I don't care if you are conservative or liberal, but be moderate,” declared Glenn Sloan, a retired businessman who attended the former governor's rally and who admitted to having voted for the former president in 2020.

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