The president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, arrives this Thursday at the report of his fourth year of Government amid consistent levels of approvalthe growing interest in knowing who will be the ruling party’s presidential candidate and pending for the last third of his term.
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After coming to power on December 1, 2018, López Obrador has tried to shore up his government project, called the “fourth transformation” of the country’s public life, in the midst of a daily battle against his opponents.
Added to this is the global crisis due to the covid-19 pandemic and the war between Russia Y Ukraine.
Under this scenario, the researcher from the Social Research Institute of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (IIS-UNAM), Álvaro Arreola, considers that the Government of López Obrador “can hardly be assessed year by year.”
At that time, the specialist pointed out, if López Obrador’s management has been characterized by something “it is by his consistency.”
He has not abandoned “the conviction of putting aside the economic model that was lived in Mexico until 2018, the neoliberal model,” he explained.
He also highlighted his megaprojects, such as the construction of the new airport in the capital in the midst of a pandemic, the construction of an oil refinery and the purchase of another in Texas.
“This illustrates a panorama of a nationalist state, but above all concerned about the development of those regions that have always been forgotten in Mexican territory, like all those in the southeast of the country, with the Mayan Train and the Transisthmian Train,” he said.
This illustrates a panorama of a nationalist State, but above all concerned with the development of those regions that in the Mexican territory were always forgotten.
President’s Approval
On the contrary, for the political scientist of the Autonomous Metropolitan University (UAM), Juan Pablo Navarrete, it could not be pointed out that the four years of the López Obrador Government are successful in a global way, but that they must be separated by dimensions.
One would be in electoral political terms, with the successful emergence of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), the party created by López Obrador, and the other would be the approval of the president.
He recalled that the party was born in 2014, competed in 2015 and from 2015 to 2018 it did not win state governments in “a period of adaptation and growth”, but from 2018 to 2022 “with a large electoral machinery it already has 20 governments. “So, In electoral political terms, they are four very successful years,” he says.
The other dimension that the opposition has a hard time accepting “is the president’s strong approval,” said Navarrete.
The first year started with little more than 80% approval and does not usually go below 60%.
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In its most recent national opinion study, the Poligrama polling house reported that the president receives a rating from the population of 7.1 on a scale of 0 to 10 and has an approval of 67.12%.
In addition, 53.07% approve of his security management, a percentage that has been increasing, since in December 2019 only 47.54% did.
Meanwhile, 58.38% approve of his management in economics and 56.79% of his fight against corruption.
Navarrete, also a researcher and academic at the University of La Ciénega de Michoacán, said that López Obrador “has areas for improvement” and an example, he said, is on the issue of security, where he tries to transfer, based on a decree, the National Guard to the Secretary of National Defense.
Opposition and candidates
For Arreola, also a specialist in political parties, until now the opposition parties have offered “minimal political competition” since in recent years they have been less.
And he said that everything indicates that the parliamentary majority that he created in 2018 and that he assured in 2021 “surely” will be in 2024.
This is because the weakness of the traditional opposition parties, the Institutional Revolutionary (PRI) and National Action (AN) “is not current, but the consequence of the bad business that both forces made” by allying after years of being rivals.
Among the possible successors of López Obrador for 2024, the most mentioned are the Secretary of the Interior, Adán Augusto López; Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, and the head of the Government of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum.
The UNAM investigator pointed out that “anyone who arrives will continue the work of President López Obrador.”
In addition, he said that the presidential succession is “tied up”, “that Morena and its allies are clearly going to win in 2024” and that is what the president is going to focus on, along with his infrastructure works.
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On the other hand, it will possibly promote a Latin American alliance “once Lula Da Silva comes to power in Brazil.”
Meanwhile, Navarrete clarified that the economic issue is a great pending issue and may be an issue that can affect the perception of government performance during the remainder of his administration, which ends in 2024, in addition to the electoral reform.
“The opposition parties are going to point out that this government did not manage the economy well and that the country did not grow and has the highest inflation in the last 25 years, that could be the great opportunity for the opposition,” he concluded.
EFE
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