Mexico City – (Azucena Vasquez) – The building and the trade retail contribute to the economic weakening in the third quarter, as they do not show a growth trend, according to experts.
Although the vast majority of economic activities will remain stagnant, the aforementioned can lead to weakness in the economy, emphasized Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of Economic Analysis at Monex.
Construction, he recalled, has not achieved a good performance this year and everything indicates that the trend will continue. Last August, the construction industry fell 1.7 percent per month, its second low record, according to the Inegi.
“It has to do with several factors, such as an increase in interest rates, which seek to curb aggregate demand, and this sector is leveraged to start projects, not in a generalized way, but many are.
“So, the fact that the cost of financing is increasing makes it more expensive to build buildings and civil engineering works and so on,” he explained.
If we add to that the fact that the cost of raw materials has increased compared to last year, he added, the perspective is that the complex outlook for this sector will continue.
The deputy director of Monex Economic Analysis He stated that, meanwhile, retail trade fell 0.4 percent in August compared to July, reflecting the impact that consumption is beginning to suffer due to the country’s high inflation. He highlighted that a slowdown in retail sales is expected in almost all sectors.
“General inflation seems to be slowing down, but it is still very high, the specific projection is for the third quarter, and we see it difficult for there to be a rebound (in sales) for the fourth quarter if these factors do not change”, declared.
Quiroz recalled that the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the period from July to September will have been close to just 0.2 quarterly percent, which shows the stagnation that the figures presented by Inegi anticipate, and to which the weakness would also pay the retail trade.
Last week, the Inegi published the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), which forecasts GDP growth of 0.1 and zero percent per month for August and September, in that order.
In contrast, the manufacturing sector will be the one that continues to surprise with increases in the remainder of the year, he said. The specialist recalled that exports from the automotive industry have shown significant increases.
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