TOLatin America is on alert for the possible arrival of the La Niña phenomenon, which could bring with it months of high climate variability, according to experts who recently met at the headquarters of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva.
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This phenomenon, characterized by alternating periods of extreme dryness and humidity, threatens to replicate the devastating droughts experienced between 2020 and 2023 in the south of the region.
José Luis Stella, from the Regional Climate Centre for Southern South America, expressed concern about the speed and extremity of current climate changes. “We are coming off three years of a prolonged La Niña that brought extreme, historic droughts with great impact and then a rapid transition to the El Niño phenomenon,” “We are now facing the transition to La Niña again, not only with extreme weather, but also with very extreme and rapid variability.”
With the arrival of La Niña, a summer with several heat waves is expected.
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La Niña is part of the climate phenomenon known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which involves variations in temperatures in the central and eastern regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
This phenomenon has two opposite phases: El Niño, which raises temperatures, and La Niña, which lowers them, affecting the global climate. Each cycle of these phenomena lasts nine to twelve months and occurs every two to seven years, although it does not follow a fixed calendar.
Forecasters also warn that the Caribbean could face a more active hurricane season than usual, increasing the risk to coastal populations.
An active hurricane season is coming
In the Caribbean, the situation is particularly alarming. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has put the spotlight on Hurricane Beryl, which recently reached category five, the highest on the hurricane scale, and is heading towards Jamaica. This phenomenon marks a milestone for the region, as noted by Rodney Martinez, WMO representative for North and Central America and the Caribbean, who warns of a “very dangerous” season.
Since records began, a phenomenon of this type of maximum intensity had never formed at this time of year in the Atlantic, so Beryl sets an “alarming precedent,” said the organization’s authorities.
The center wall of Beryl, a dangerous Category 4 hurricane, is brushing the southern coast of Jamaica and the system is expected to approach the Cayman Islands tonight toward the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico), reported the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States.
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However, Karina Hernandez of Costa Rica’s National Meteorological Institute provides a more nuanced perspective. While she acknowledges the increase in hurricane activity, she notes that there is not yet a regional consensus on how much more active the season will be compared to previous years.
“Temperatures have been hot and continue to be hot in both the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic. As for the hurricane season, it is considered more active than normal. We still don’t have a regional consensus on how much more active it is,” he explained.
The Nation (Argentina) / GDA
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