By Carlo Platella
Ups and downs at Mercedes. The W15 shows important progress compared to the troubled 2023 car, not only in the timing, but also in the driving sensations reported by the drivers. The Jeddah race, however, tells the story of a Silver Arrow still fickle and difficult to fine-tune, especially in high-speed corners, where Red Bull continues to dominate and Ferrari makes the greatest progress. The hope in Brackley is that these are youth issues related to the still incomplete knowledge of a revolutionized project, rather than alarm bells about simulation techniques.
Ups and downs
The W15 shows off positively in the inaugural stage in Bahrain: good in managing tire degradation, effective in traction and agile in medium-low mileage corners. In the central part of the race the Silver Arrows were limited by understeer on hard tyres, a positive sign in some ways, considering how rear stability was one of the project objectives. “A great deal of attention has been paid to improve the unpredictable rear end of the previous car”explained James Allison during the presentation.
An incorrect choice for the cooling configuration, however, forced the team to sacrifice up to half a second on the race pace in Bahrain, necessary to stem the overheating of the power unit and preventing the potential of the W15 from being appreciated. However, if the car shows signs of competitiveness on the Sakhir hairpin bends, the situation changes on the Saudi Arabian bends. “The car is good at low speeds and not bad at medium distances, but at high speeds we are miles away from others”the analysis of Lewis Hamilton with SkySport F1.
In the first sector of Jeddah, Mercedes is even 4 tenths behind the competition, a delay attributable to many factors, above all the lack of aerodynamic load. “The big problem is that we don't have enough grip. It's one of the things we're working on this week, because in Melbourne the curves are of a similar nature.” warns track operations manager Andrew Shovlin. In Saudi Arabia the team tries to compensate for the gap with a more loaded rear wing, tested in FP3, which however proves insufficient for the purpose, as well as being too penalizing on the straight. “We lack downforce to greater levels than could be achieved with a larger wing,” the words of Toto Wolff after the race reported by RacingNews365.
Nightmare rebounds
Other limiting factor for Mercedes in Jeddah are rebounds in fast corners. In Saudi Arabia cars travel closer to the ground than in Bahrain, both due to the leveled asphalt and the greater vertical thrust that is released in high-speed bends. A phenomenon which, according to Shovlin, is more accentuated in qualifying: “It was less of an issue during the race: there is more fuel in the car and you go slower”.
It remains to be ascertained whether the aerodynamic instability of the surface or rather the impact against the ground triggers the rebounds in the first place. The fact is that the problem deprives the drivers of the necessary confidence on the flying lap, especially Lewis Hamilton: “We had some bounces in Bahrain, but nothing remotely close to how intense they are here [a Jeddah]. The first sector is super fast, with large yaw angles and lots of lateral load. Rebounds unbalance the car quite a bit. When the car goes up and down, the balance shifts forwards and backwards. If this happens at over 250 km/h and you have to correct every time…”.
More or less, in Jeddah all the drivers complain about bouncing around corners, but the two Mercedes standard bearers appear to be in more difficulty than average. “We have tried every change of structure, we can't get rid of it”, Hamilton's surrender. The bouncing issues come as something of a surprise, considering how technical director James Allison had repeatedly promised that the W15 shouldn't spin too close to the ground. However, faced with a car lacking downforce, the team finds itself with few options to stem the rebounds, unable to raise the car without sacrificing additional downforce.
Narrow window
In addition to the rebound problems and lack of load, there is a third factor holding Mercedes back in Jeddah. Andrew Shovlin explains: “In those very fast corners, the walls aren't particularly far away and the driver wants a lot of confidence in the middle. Often though, if they relied too much on the tyres, we fell into oversteer. You can imagine how destabilizing this is for the pilots.” The flaws of the W15 therefore prevent us from appreciating the potential of a car which, according to George Russell, hides intrinsic speed.
Hamilton is also on the same wavelength: “I'm like that many elements of this car that are better than the previous one. Simply, they are overshadowed by the rebounds we suffer from.” The picture is that of a car that promises better potential from the simulations, but is difficult to extract. A dynamic that recalls that of 2023, with a performance range that is too narrow and difficult to hit with fine-tuning. “There is no great performance corridor”, Toto Wolff confirmed in the post-race, “it's more a fundamental issue that we are struggling with, given that we believe there must be some speed, we can measure the aerodynamic load, but we don't find it in the final time”.
Future perspectives
The priority in Brackley is now to find explanations and answers as soon as possible for what emerged in Jeddah. The more time, human and economic resources must be spent on investigating the problems, the more the development of the W15 will be slowed down. In fact, the prerogative to develop is ascertain the simulation techniques, already the subject of analysis and changes in recent months. James Allison had explained how the team had corrected the CFD aerodynamic simulation models, modifying the mesh criteria to better analyze certain aerodynamic aspects.
On the other hand, the W15 is also a profoundly revolutionized project compared to the past and as such requires time before the team learns to know it and exploit its true potential. Those that have emerged so far could therefore be of the simple vices of youth and not necessarily structural problems. Certainly though, the first two races of the year have dictated the work agenda at Brackley for the next few weeks
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