Last Thursday, Javier Milei and Sergio Massa, the two finalists for the presidency of Argentina that will be defined this Sunday in the second round, They closed a frenetic campaign, although in different cities and in different ways.
While the libertarian deputy and leader of the right-wing party La Libertad Avanza, Javier Milei, chose Córdoba, the second largest electoral district in the country; he Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, opted for diverse meetings, in closed environments and with well-defined audiences: business entities and students from a public school in Buenos Aires, a nod to the new generations.
“Rest assured that, if I have the responsibility of governing Argentina, I will leave my soul and all my strength so that we can build that country that today is a utopia but that we can make it a reality,” said Massa, while holding a stuffed animal. tiger that the students gave him in reference to his years in that city where he was mayor.
For his part, Milei, who has filled stadiums, but nothing like what happened on Thursday in Córdoba where he jumped on stage after crossing an avenue full of flags with his name and chainsaws – a symbol of his campaign – in a truck, He stated that this Sunday “history will turn upside down and the path of Argentine reconstruction will begin.” “The votes are there and we are going to beat them. Long live freedom, damn it! “She sentenced.
Two scenes that were an example of the prevailing need that both candidates have to convince the undecided, a handful that will define the fate of the country this Sunday after, after the first round on October 22 where Massa surprised with a first place (36.78 percent) and Milei – the big winner of the August primaries – was relegated to second place (29.99 percent) , political tension and very tight calculations have been adding.
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Milei: 51.1 percent. Mass: 48.8%. That is the average of the last 15 polls recorded in Argentina before the second round of the closest, and at the same time most atypical, presidential elections that the country remembers.
The heir candidate of the ruling party and the outsider of the right practically tie. The difference of 2.3 percentage points falls within the margin of error of the majority of surveys published not only in Argentina, but in practically any country.
Both candidates are faced with the great challenge of generating a government with sufficiently popular and stable confidence.
So things are, The first challenge for the new occupant of the Casa Rosada will be to defend the result in the face of expected polarization.
(You may be interested in: The harsh exchanges that Javier Milei and Sergio Massa exchanged in the presidential debate)
“Political polarization in Argentina has existed for a long time at the institutional level, with the dominance of two political forces and which will be difficult to overcome, even if new political forces emerge. It could even be exacerbated given the tightness of the result. But, if we add to that that social polarization, which generates conflicts between groups that think and vote differently, has grown, “This high level of social anxiety will be the great first challenge once Massa or Milei wins,” Marina Pera, an analyst at Control Risks in Argentina, tells EL TIEMPO.
For his part, Juan Negri, political scientist and director of the Department of Political Science and International Studies at the Torcuato Di Tella University of Argentina, assured that the “most likely” thing is that, regardless of who wins, “There begins to be a lot of social frustration very quickly.”
“If the new president falls into government failure, it will generate a situation of great anguish, which means that both candidates are faced with the great challenge of generating a government with enough popular and stable confidence to gradually get out of the situation.” of unrest in which Argentina finds itself,” he stated.
Economy, key issue
The campaign has been focused on the economy, whose exacerbated imbalances lead to an imminent acute crisis, a scenario for which Massa and Milei propose absolutely different solutions, posing serious dilemmas to the 35.8 million Argentines who will go to the polls.
“Whoever wins today will inherit a dire economic situation. The current policy mix has led to unsustainable macroeconomic imbalances,” says Michael Heydt, senior vice president of Global Sovereign Ratings at rating agency DBRS Morningstar.
(Also: The thorny path that the next president of Argentina must travel)
Fiscal and monetary fees, very high inflation, lack of monetary reserves, high debt, stagnant activity and increasing poverty rates are the main accounts of the rosary of problems that the next head of state will face.
Without oxygen to function, the second largest South American economy accumulated a contraction of 1.6 percent until August and the consensus of private consultants indicates that GDP will fall 2 percent this year from an expansion of 5 percent in 2022.
The main concern of Argentines is inflation, with a consumer price index that reached 142.7 percent year-on-year in October and that, according to private projections collected by the Central Bank, it will accumulate an increase of 185 percent this year, the highest since the hyperinflation of 1989-1990.
To make matters worse, the Central Bank has almost no international reserves, while domestic and foreign investors are tired of the story of a country being oversold too many times in the recent past.
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Milei promises to dollarize the economy, while Massa bets on a better 2024 for the Argentine peso thanks to an export boombut, even so, most experts discount an exchange rate correction.
Besides, The future president will have to deal with the International Monetary Fund, an organization to which Argentina owes about 46,000 million dollars and with which in 2022 it signed an agreement for extended facilities with demanding goals that are difficult to meet and which has not managed to chase away the specter of a colossal cessation of payments.
“The new president will have to stabilize prices, inflation and the exchange rate, as well as negotiate new targets with the IMF. However, unpopular measures, such as increasing some tariffs such as energy and transportation to stabilize prices, imply political and social costs that can impact the president’s popularity. We must not forget that popular anger and impatience will be constant challenges for the next president,” explains Pera.
Legislative allies
To achieve stability and execution, The new president will have to build alliances in Congress, even with centrist coalitions. “Milei would have to moderate the tone and put aside the most controversial proposals and seek the support of the center-right, while Massa should offer positions in anti-corruption agencies and in the Ministry of the Economy to the opposition. With Milei in the presidency, the risks of political instability are higher, given that it would not enjoy the support of unions and governors, two historically very important groups in Argentina, in addition to Congress,” explains the analyst.
“With Massa in the presidency, the challenge is to maintain balance and cohesion in a coalition with sectors of the center-right and the left. Milei would probably not execute his radical and ambitious government proposal, due to the lack of political support in Congress. And the cost of not passing her agenda is frustrating her constituency. However, as he is the main representative of his political force, he would not significantly lose the support of his voters,” he adds.
(You can read: Javier Milei, a libertarian who approaches populism in Argentina)
With Milei in the presidency, the risks of political instability are higher
And the decision of former president Mauricio Macri (2015-2019) and Patricia Bullrich, third in the October election and present at the closing ceremony of Milei this Thursday, to give their support to the libertarian opened waters in the coalition of center-right Together for Change, where several leaders declared themselves neutral and others, without giving explicit support to Massa, refused to support the far-right.
Doors inside the ruling Union for the Homeland front, both The Argentine president, Alberto Fernández, like the vice president, Cristina Fernández, remained outside the campaign, giving all the prominence to the leader of the Renovador Front, the third largest force within the ruling coalition.
Democratic stability
For experts, Argentina will continue to have democratic stability after these results. However, from Negri’s point of view, “the underlying problem is that Argentine democracy, which is celebrating its 40th anniversary, has performed very poorly.” “The government model has been incapable of providing quality public goods and services to its inhabitants. That explains the appearance of candidates with slightly worse democratic credentials,” he explains.
(Keep reading: Where lies the extraordinary survival capacity of Peronism in Argentina)
For the academic, The key for the new president is to understand the root of the country’s problems. “I think Milei proposes radical, childish and simplistic solutions. Although, from my perspective, she better understands the nature of the problems that the country is going through. Massa, although he has a more orthodox orientation than his predecessors, the weight of Kirchnerism can leave him blind to the underlying economic problem, ignoring the need to propose profound reforms,” he comments.
With other topics on the table such as security, the role of the State and human rights, issues that even permeated the mandatory debate between both candidates held last Sunday, in which Massa was the clear winner due to his astuteness in managing exchanges and timing, Argentines will vote this Sunday while waiting for a 2024 that is predicted to be full of social conflict.
STEPHANY ECHAVARRÍA
INTERNATIONAL EDITOR
TIME
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