The new DANA It is already approaching Spain with its attention focused on the Mediterranean coast. Balearics, Catalonia and Valencian Community They are the first regions to receive the orange alert for this Tuesday. However, something will change starting this coming morning: the storms caused by the DANA environment will grow in their geographic breadth -without saying goodbye to the east- and will extend to Andalusiawith special risk in the province of Malaga.
“The issue of Malaga is special, it has caught my attention because it has certain similarities with what happened in Valencia,” he explains to 20 minutes Francisco Leon Martincollaborator of Meteored who has carried out a meteorological analysis of the new DANA with several models. The meteorologist assures that “the precipitation intensities” of this new phenomenon in Malaga will not be as strong as those recorded in the last DANA, but qualifies: if there are analogies with the precedent of October 29, it is because “the rains can stagnate” in the province of Malaga, as happened in the east, “and they can be stationary”.
The expert develops that this stagnation over Malaga refers to the passage of a “storm train” throughout Wednesday and Thursday that will be generated over the Alboran Sea due to the conditions favored by DANA, and that will give a sensation of a unique phenomenon at the local level. “It is equivalent to as if a storm were still over a place when in reality They are storm cars in a line, an organized system”he complements.
Another issue of concern in the case of Malaga is its “complex orography”, which could favor “significant accumulations” and “flash floods” in orographic areas such as ravines or dry runoffs, which can be filled with sudden water currents. “This is what happened in Valencia in the lower part of the Barranco del Poyo and Turia,” exemplifies the analyst.
“Major risk”: more than 200 liters?
The warning from the experts in Malaga is palpable in the issuance of alerts by the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). The public body has activated the orange notice on the Costa del Sol, Guadalhorce, Axarquía and Antequera, starting at 3:00 a.m. on Wednesday. This implies that all towns on the Malaga coastincluding the city of Malaga, are at “significant risk”.
The Aemet has calculated that rainfall will have a magnitude of more than 100 liters per square meter in 12 hours in the aforementioned areas. However, Martín points out that “some models see the probability that “storms can reach 200 liters of accumulated water.”. These are “more realistic” models that are not used at an operational level, such as MeteoSuiss. “It is an extreme and unlikely value, but it must also be predictedas happened in Valencia the other day,” he concludes.
“The warnings must be taken very seriously”
The president of the Malaga Provincial Council, Francisco Salado, stated this Tuesday that “the warnings must be taken very, very seriously” and has indicated that Citizens “have to collaborate” and that the administrations “have to be coordinated.” In fact, he has made “an appeal to citizens not to park their cars in areas near streams” and to “save their lives.”
“It is impossible, due to the amount of water that has fallen in Valencia, to prevent this material damage from occurring, but human damage must be avoided, obviously, the loss of human life”has influenced in an interview in Canal Sur Radio.
Sigh from Friday
The storms will be seasonal locally during Wednesday the 13th and Thursday the 14th, so extreme caution is requested these days. However, This DANA will have a higher degree of mobility than the previous oneso that this system that generates a favorable environment for the development of storms is going to move towards the west of the Gulf of Cádiz, moving away, in principle, from the peninsula starting on Friday.
Precisely, what fundamentally distinguishes this phenomenon from the previous one is its dynamism. The Valencia DANA was “very static” and “long lasting”, which made it “potentially more adverse”, mentions Francisco Martín. This new DANA, however, presents greater movement, which brings good news – shorter duration and potential risk – but also bad news: greater inaccuracy in its prediction.
The new meteorological phenomenon will, therefore, be worse than the previous one in terms of predictability: “There is a lot of uncertainty in the final position of this new system, unlike the previous one. Every day the forecast changes. It is very difficult to predict“, explains Martín. This characteristic is very important, since all the experts agree that you must be “very attentive to the Aemet notices.”
Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for the meteorological organization, recommended this Monday to follow the weather forecast and the meteorological warnings in force in the Aemet websitein its mobile phone application and on its social networks.
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