An unexpected photograph marked what would be the possible restart ofhe dialogue between chavismo and the opposition. Although with uncomfortable smiles, the handshake between Jorge Rodríguez, head of the Chavista delegation, and Gerardo Blyde, leader of the opposition Unity Platform, reflected the real reason for the meeting: the pressure exerted by the US after the relaxation of sanctions related to with the oil sector.
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Although what has been announced does not yet mean the exploitation, purchase and sale of crude oil from the Caribbean country, according to initial estimatesChevron could raise Venezuelan production 33 percent without the sanctions.
Precisely, the condition of the Biden administration to make the uprising effective is the commitment of the Venezuelan government to resume the paralyzed dialogue table with its adversaries in Mexico, in addition to ensuring the holding of “free and fair” elections.
Venezuela continues with deep sanctions and the restructuring of its more than 60,000 million dollars of debt in default nor is in sight. But the world energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has opened a debate on how the South American country could help solve the interruptions in the supply of crude oil.
The state oil company’s defaulted bonds rose this week as investors priced in optimism about possible changes. However, the market remains cautious and prices remain below the levels seen in March after the visit of US officials to Caracas.
Each stage of dialogue that is restarted generates a greater difficulty of confidence that it can deliver results.
And although the intention of both parties to resume the conversation seems obvious, the first signs of “reciprocity” are not entirely convincing.
“Each stage of dialogue that is restarted generates a greater difficulty of confidence that it can give results,” the political consultant told this newspaper Michael Velardeinsisting that the regime may be looking for “greater oxygen”, given that it is in a moment of political strength.
According to Velarde, unlike other processes, which total more than seven since 2014, at this time Maduro has stability, which he will make the most of with a view to prolonging his stay in the Miraflores palace, paving the way for the 2024 presidential elections.
“On previous occasions, dialogue was opened, even with the mediation of the Vatican, and in a context of weakness of the regime that ended up in a better position without conceding much. This time may not be the exception”, explains the expert.
At least at a discursive level, Chavismo has lowered the tone of its position towards the United States. In fact, President Maduro affirmed on Friday that “he only had signs of love for the Americans” and even expressed that he was “waiting for their visa” to go to New York with his wife, Cilia Flores, to the Salsa Festival.
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The 15 million dollars for the head of Maduro
Until now, his desire is impossible because he has an arrest warrant from the State Department and a $15 million reward.
Thus, the speeches and supposed initiatives of dialogue could obey, in the view of the political scientist Leandro Rodriguez, to behaviors necessary to meet specific situations. For him, now that Venezuela is in a stage of “relative tranquility and peace”, what the US offers becomes “the perfect scenario for Chavismo to continue directing its route towards the presidential elections.”
“Requesting the total lifting of oil sanctions, leaving aside others that allow the importation of medical supplies, for example, shows that the Government is only interested in starting the industry. This way you can control not only the opposition political arm but calm the protests in the face of failures in public services, ”he says.
Until now, the opposition has limited itself to saying, through a statement, that they have not requested the lifting of sanctions and that they continue to bet on reaching an agreement that allows the holding of presidential elections with conditions.
The Venezuelan Church, through Cardinal Baltazar Porras, apostolic administrator of Caracas, assured that the citizenry should be represented at the negotiating table.
Requesting the total lifting of the oil companies, leaving aside others that allow the importation of medical supplies, shows that the Government is only interested in starting the industry.
It is precisely the absence of the latter that is criticized by those who have always seen few opportunities for results in the negotiation for a transition of power.
“More than a table, what is required in Mexico is to redouble efforts so that Venezuelans continue to resist the regime,” said the deputy of the National Assembly chaired by Juan Guaidó, Luis Barragán.
and although The US has insisted that if it does not see realistic signs from the Venezuelan government, it will not move forward in lifting sanctions, The outlook looks quite favorable for Chavismo, which ultimately sets the agenda and decides when and how to resume negotiations.
“The big winner is the Maduro government”assures political consultant Pablo Quintero, who warns that the risks may be greater than the gains for the opposition if they decide to sit down at the table again.
Ana Rodriguez Brazon
Correspondent of THE TIME
Caracas
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