French President Emmanuel Macron’s political party will almost certainly have the largest faction in the French parliament. He may even win the absolute majority.
This is evident from forecasts after the first round of the French parliamentary elections on Sunday. Macron’s party, along with some small allied parties, can count on 255 to 295 seats. With 289 seats, they would have an absolute majority of the 577 seats. In that case, the president can carry out his policies for the next five years without great opposition.
If Macron gets the largest faction but not the absolute majority, he will have to work with other parties. That can complicate the execution of his plans.
Nupes coalition
The left-wing Nupes coalition is forecast to become the second-largest faction in parliament. The five cooperating left-wing parties – from the Greens to the Communists – would get 150 to 190 seats.
With this they achieve a remarkably good result. In the previous elections, in 2017, the five separate left-wing parties won only 58 seats. Nupes (New Ecological and Social People’s Union) will now become Macron’s main opponent in the so-called Assemblée Nationale, far ahead of all other opposition parties.
The radical right-wing Marine Le Pen would get ‘only’ 20 to 45 seats with her party.
Decisive voting round
The second and decisive voting round will be held in a week. In those constituencies where none of the parties now received more than 50 percent of the vote, votes will then be taken again with only the largest parties from the first round.
The turnout on Sunday was historically low according to the first figures: only 47.2 percent of the French would have voted. That is the lowest turnout in France’s recent history. “It is mainly the young people who stay at home. France is becoming more and more like a senior democracy,” said Brice Teinturier, political scientist and director of research institute Ipsos.
It is striking in this first round of elections that Macron’s party and the left-wing Nupes coalition received about the same number of votes: both 25.2 percent. Five years ago, Macron’s party got 28 percent. The fact that his party now gets considerably more seats in parliament than Nupes has to do with, among other things, the French electoral system, which favors large parties.
Macron was re-elected as president of France in April. He left far-right Marine Le Pen behind by a large margin:
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