Politics has returned to the daily lives of Venezuelans. The opposition primaries held this October 22 surprised not only because of the participation and capitalization of the vote through its winner, María Corina Machado, but for the articulation towards a goal such as the presidential elections of 2024.
(Also read: María Corina Machado sweeps the Venezuelan primaries)
For several years, after the rise and fall of Juan Guaidó, Venezuelans showed a depoliticization that reached between 30 and 50 percent according to pollsters, so based on that panorama, the positive bets on the internal elections this Sunday, They were few.
With 64.88 percent of the minutes, which represents 3,331 and 1,591,504 votes, María Corina Machado won with 1,473,105 votes. He was followed by Carlos Prosperi, with 70,819 votes, Delsa Solórzano, with 10,540 votes, and Andrés Caleca, with 8,559.
Without the total of the minutes, because the rest of the scrutiny has not been totaled due to technical complications, in a process self-managed by the National Primary Commission, the other candidates recognized Machado and were next to her when she gave her speech almost at dawn.
(Also read: Primaries in Venezuela: massive participation and mobilization is surprising)
“In 2024 we are going to win in that presidential election, we are going to collect and we are going to evict Nicolás Maduro and his regime and we are going to begin the reconstruction of our nation,” she exclaimed, applauded by her followers who were in her campaign command in Caracas.
But, “There is not a single possibility that a disqualified person will go to the presidential elections.”s” said this Monday Diosdado Cabello, number two of Chavismo and firm detractor of the primaries. Cabello assured that the process “was a fraud” and that only 600,000 people voted, which “is a good number, but they prefer to inflate the numbers.”
Exactly what Cabello says is the opposition’s new dilemma: disqualification. Chavismo in general has been firm and, despite the demands of the United States to lift sanctions in exchange for the elimination of political obstacles, the ruling party insists that if Machado is disqualified, she will remain that way because “she is a version of Juan Guaidó.” Cabello said.
However, it seems that this threat is not a concern at the moment, since the former deputy feels prepared to tear down “obstacles”, “abuses” and adverse “forecasts” to register and win the 2024 presidential elections and launch her project. government distant from Chavista socialism.
For analysts, the scenario is very complex, because although “politics is back in the homes of Venezuelans,” so far no plan b has been presented in case Machado fails to register. Some talk about preparing a standard-bearer who can supplant her.
For the well-known former deputy Enrique Ochoa Antich, the main opposition parties are obliged to include Machado in the negotiations with the Maduro government, but beyond that, sIf he wins the presidential elections, Machado has to be clear that Chavismo is not going to disappear, so it would have to unify the country instead of radicalizing.
But a specific strategy remains unposed; on the contrary, there are more questions than ever.
If there is a constant in Venezuela, it is uncertainty. “No one knows anything, no one determines what the steps and political roadmap the country has are. Nobody knows what day next year the elections will be,” political scientist Ángel Medina tells EL TIEMPO.
Medina believes that the most tangible thing at the moment is to see if the release of sanctions by the United States will actually have a positive impact on the national economy. but he is aware that the opposition has several challenges and is called to know how to handle itself in the coming monthss under the issue of disqualification and with it a responsible action by Machado that allows the best decisions to be made.
“Everything that is decided today is going to have an impact on the political opposition in the next 7 years, so you have to think very carefully,” insists Medina, who reiterates that Machado must defend his political rights.
For his part, political scientist Piero Trepiccione believes that the opposition has to take advantage of the primary because it gives it original legitimacy and helps it strengthen the organizational muscle for 2024.
“It’s not going to be easy at all. It will be very complicated, especially at this time when Nicolás Maduro knows that he has a strong candidate in front of him and that in the best of cases today he would beat her by 40 points,” insists Trepiccione, alleging that Madurismo will go to a reengineering to dismantle Machado.
ANA MARÍA RODRÍGUEZ BRAZÓN
TIME CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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