Lula has 48.3% of the valid votes; Bolsonaro, 39.7%, says MDA/CNT

In an eventual 2nd round, the PT has 50.4% of the voting intentions; the president scores 41.2%

Search made by MDA Research Institute to the CNT (National Transport Confederation) released this Saturday (1st.Oct.2022) shows the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 48.3% of valid votes in the 1st round of the presidential elections this Sunday (2.Oct). Then comes the president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), with 39.7%.

The survey conducted 2,002 interviews from September 28 to 30, 2022. It is registered in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) with number BR-02944/2022. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. It cost R$ 168,000.00 and was paid by the CNT. Here’s the intact of the survey (3 MB).

the so-called “valid votes” they are only those given to candidates, that is, blanks and nulls are not considered. To win in the 1st round, a candidate must have at least 50% plus 1 of the valid votes.

Read the results of the MDA/CNT survey:

Jose Maria Eymael (DC) and Leonardo Pericles (UP) did not score.

2nd TURN

In an eventual 2nd round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the PT would be elected with 50.4% of the total votes (including blanks and nulls). The chief executive would have 41.2%. In the previous poll, Lula had 49.4% against Bolsonaro’s 39.3%.

The institute also tested a scenario between Lula and Ciro. In it, PT would win by 48.6% to 32.0. In the previous survey, PT appeared with 47.5% against 30.9% for PT.

Already in a 2nd round between Ciro and Bolsonaro, the former governor of Ceará would have 40.4%. Bolsonaro, 41%. In the last poll, the percentages were: 41.9% for Ciro against 40.1% for the president.

POWERDATA

Search PowerDate, held from the 25th to the 27th of September, shows the former president leading the race with 48% of valid votes – given to candidates, excluding blanks and nulls. Bolsonaro has 38%.

As per the research, Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 6% of valid votes; Simone Tebet (MDB), 5%. Felipe d’Avila (New) and Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil) have 1% each. The other names did not score.

In 2nd round case between Lula and BolsonaroPT would have 51% of voting intentions against 39% of the current president.

The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power360Journalism, with its own resources. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. Data were collected from September 25 to 27, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 4,500 interviews in 323 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 1.5 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-01426/2022.

RESEARCH AGGREGATOR

O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.

The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator clicking here.

Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.