Search PowerDate held October 3-5, 2022 shows that Lula (EN) and Bolsonaro (PL) tie numerically among voters who are sure they will leave home to vote in the 2nd round. In this audience, the PT and the current president mark 47% of the votes, while 5% would vote blank or null. Another 2% did not know how to respond.
Lula, however, benefits if the election includes those who are now uncertain about their turnout. In the group of those who think they can vote, but are not sure (5% of the total number of voters), PT has 64% of voting intentions.
The abstention rate is a decisive factor in Brazilian elections. Roundedly, about 70% of those who fail to vote are low-income voters. That is, the demographic group that shows sympathy for Lula. In this scenario, the more people leave their homes to vote, the better it is for Lula.
The survey was carried out by PowerDatewith resources from Power 360, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,500 interviews in 301 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation from October 3 to 5, 2022. The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. Registration with the TSE: BR-08253/2022. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text. The dissemination of results is done in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura.
Among the electorate in general, Lula has 52% of the valid votes against 48% for Bolsonaro. Read more here.
Overview
The overwhelming majority (92%) of voters say that “absolutely” will vote on election day. Those who can go but aren’t sure are 5%. Only 2% of voters declare that they will not leave their homes to vote on October 30, and 1% did not know how to respond.
The 1st round of elections confirmed something that the Power 360 I had already reiterated in previous weeks: abstention itself is a difficult fact to capture. Voters tend to respond more based on their intention to vote than on an objective assessment of whether or not they will vote – which involves contingent factors such as weather conditions, safety and the availability of public transport.
Research has shown that something close to 90% of voters said they were sure they would vote; the final abstention rate, however, was 20.95% in the 1st round.
The survey should be read, rather, as an indication of the voter’s perception. In this sense, it shows a correlation between voter turnout and Lula’s performance at the polls: if more people go out to vote, PT tends to score more. While Bolsonaro has close to him a voter who is more engaged and willing to go to the polls – and with more resources to do so, considering that the president scores better among the higher-income electorate – Lula is the preferred candidate of people who are still evaluating whether will leave the house.
This audience is limited to 5% of the electorate, but the 1st round indicates that the election will be disputed inch by inch. Engaging a part of it can be a step forward for the PT.
POWERDATA
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DIFFERENCES IN SURVEYS
This presidential election is proving challenging for companies doing research. There are many results indicating divergent signals. It was difficult to know what the real trend is at this moment.
It is important to say that all polls are right, each within the methodology chosen. Each system can have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the situation they want to determine.
In 2018, for example, there was much “embarrassed vote” in Jair Bolsonaro. Some face-to-face surveys had difficulty capturing this type of preference. Telephone polls, on the other hand, gave more comfort to part of the voters who opted for the then presidential candidate for the PSL (today, Bolsonaro is in the PL).
It is still unclear what impact each methodology has on data collection. But it is already known that in-person polls tend to have a result pointing to a looser leadership of Lula. And telephone surveys (especially automated and neutral ones, with a recording asking the questions, like the PowerDate) tend to show a tighter contest.
In the United States, face-to-face polling has not been used for decades to measure voting intentions at the national level. The extreme polarized environment hinders data collection when the interviewer and the interviewee are face to face.
In short, it is important to note that it is not a question of there being an error in one or another research. They are different methodologies. At the end of this campaign it will be possible to know which system was most appropriate to point out trends in the current Brazilian political moment.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
The research information began to be compiled by journalist Fernando Rodrigues, Editor-in-Chief of the Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
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