Paris. Limiting global warming to +1.5°C will slow down climate change, but not the suffering of developing countries, a team of 50 researchers warned Wednesday.
Some 200 million people in poor regions will be exposed to unbearable heat, and some 500 million to catastrophic rising waters, even if the world were to respect that 1.5ºC increase in the planet’s average temperature (compared to the Industrial Revolution), said these experts in a study published in Nature.
That scenario is currently considered optimistic, since greenhouse gas emissions remain at record levels.
UN climatologists estimate that current policies lead to a global warming of 2.7°C by the end of the century.
The average temperature on the planet’s surface has already increased by about 1.2°C since the pre-industrial era, which is already excessive, according to the authors of this study.
To prevent millions of people from being exposed to “significant harm (…) the fair limit must be set at 1°C or less” and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 -currently 420 parts per million (ppm)- must be reduced to 350 ppm”, consider the scientists.
“We are in the Anthropocene, which endangers the stability and resilience of the entire planet,” said Johan Rockström, lead author of the study, referring to the new geological epoch marked by the impact of humans on the planet.
For Johan Rockström, humanity has already crossed six of the nine red lines that affect the health of the planet: excess greenhouse gas emissions, acceleration of species extinction, excess scourge and phosphorus in the atmosphere ( mainly due to fertilizers), deforestation, excessive use of drinking water and the omnipresence of synthetic chemicals.
The authors of the study belong to the Global Commons Alliance, a coalition of more than 70 research centers.
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