Six months after the start of the primary elections in the US, a new NBC poll offered a good X-ray of the current moment of the contest and the concerns of potential voters.
On the one hand, the survey shows that Former President Donald Trump has established himself as the front-runner among Republicans and it is crushing its potential rivals. For another, he would not be able to beat Biden in the general elections.
In the poll, Trump accumulates 51 percent of the electoral preferences in his party, followed by the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, who adds 22 percent. The other rivals, including former Vice President Mike Pence, accumulate no more than 6 percent.
Poll shows how Trump has been going from strength to strength since a prosecutor in New York and then another in Florida decided to file criminal charges against him for concealing payment to a porn actress and then for removing and sharing classified material once he left the White House.
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For the first time in history, a former president has been criminally charged, and we cannot find an indicator in this poll that shows that impact among Republicans.
From April to date the former president has nearly doubled his lead over Ron DeSantis: From 15 points that he got in that month, according to measurements from this same medium (46 vs. 31), he went to 29.
Even more telling, when all other rivals are eliminated and only a heads-up between Trump and the governor of Florida is measured, the former’s popularity grows to 60 percent, while DeSantis gets 36 percent.
“For the first time in history, a former president has been criminally charged, and we can’t find an indicator in this poll where you see that impact among Republicans,” said Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who participated in developing the sample with Democrat Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.
“Not only are they still with Trump after the federal indictment,” Horwitt continues, “but there are several signs that his support grows while others are losing ground, particularly DeSantis”.
But not everything is rosy for the former president. In the same poll, 50 percent of Republicans think Trump should step down. and they would prefer another candidate. Some 29 percent of them say that the party needs a person who “behaves better” and offers new alternatives, while the other 21 percent think that he was a good president, but the time has come for him to retire. This is good news for DeSantis, as the numbers indicate that the doubts persist and are quite strong.
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The scenario is darker for Trump in the face of a potential confrontation with President Joe Biden in the general elections. Biden leads him today with 49 percent (45 percent for Trump). The most telling thing about this hypothetical rematch are the margins it gets between specific audiences: women (55 vs. 38), voters from 18 to 34 years old (65 vs. 30), Latinos (66 vs. 26), African-American voters (73 vs. 20), independent (47 vs 33). Even among those who currently disapprove of Biden’s management, the president wins 50 percent vs. 39 percent for Trump.
The former president, as in past elections, is stronger among white voters (51-43), men (51-42), whites without college degrees (60-35), and rural voters (68-26).
The funny thing is that when Biden’s rival is DeSantis, the numbers change and give a technical tie: 47-47.
For Horwitt, the 2024 elections would again be a referendum on Trump (as in 2020) and not about the Biden administration.
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The current president also has weak flanks. 68 percent express their concern that Biden does not have the physical and mental health to be president for another 4 years. In the case of Trump, 55 percent express the same doubts and 58 percent fear his eventual return to the White House. The United States is experiencing a particular political moment: the majority is not comfortable with the current president but they are not seduced by the return of Trump either.
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
Washington correspondent
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