“It is no exaggeration to say that our majorities in the House and Senate and my presidency will be determined by what happens next week.” US President Joe Biden spoke to his party members in the House of Representatives on Thursday and made this dangerous announcement. if his Build Back Better proposal to strengthen the social safety net in the United States does not become law soon, the Democratic Party and the Democratic President have a big problem.
The proposal has been on the table for months. Political predators have meanwhile taken big bites out of it, reducing the total value from USD 3,500 billion to USD 1,850 billion (EUR 1,587 billion). But even toned down, the package could still put a positive spin on the future of the president, the party and the country.
Biden kicked off a small international tour that is just as exciting with a visit to Pope Francis on Friday. At the UN climate summit in Glasgow, Biden will have to prove that America is really “back”, as he said when he took office. Does his country still have the diplomatic clout to guide the international community towards meaningful measures to combat global warming?
Biden already overcame a diplomatic hurdle on Friday by more or less apologizing for a recent affront in a joint press moment with French President Macron. The US and Britain have taken a large order for submarines to Australia from France. On Friday, Biden said this had been “not very graceful.”
Finally, Virginia will hold elections for a new governor on Tuesday. A Democratic defeat – not at all imaginary – will not be taken lightly in Washington.
The three issues are intertwined in many ways. On each of those three fronts, Biden and his party could use a win, but it could also be three defeats. In that case, 2022 looks bleak for Democrats. In the House and Senate midterm elections, the party could lose its majorities and Republicans could cripple Biden’s presidency.
Negotiated exhaustively
The key to success lies in two bills. If Biden manages to get his major investment in infrastructure and social legislation through Congress, that will be the message Democrats use to ask the American voter for his vote.
While all Democrats know what’s at stake, Biden mostly faces opposition within his own party. He navigates between the big left wing of his party and a disproportionately powerful conservative duo in the Senate. Their power is so great because Biden cannot miss a single Democratic vote at the 50-50 vote in the Senate. Republicans are expected to vote en bloc against Social Security.
Biden and his associates have negotiated exhaustively with the two conservative senators, then back again with the progressive wing in the House of Representatives. Biden’s original proposal contained ambitious plans for childcare and health insurance, plus far-reaching climate action. To meet conservative Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, Biden had to return to progressive MPs each time with a more watered-down proposal.
In the current proposal – as far as is known, because Biden’s employees are still busy rewriting the more than 1,600 pages thick legal text – extra money goes to a free preschool for toddlers, to childcare and care for the elderly. In addition, health insurance through Obamacare will be opened up to more Americans and they can get hearing aids reimbursed.
Paid care and parental leave have been scrapped from the original plan. State agency Medicare is not allowed to negotiate drug prices with pharmacies, one of the reasons left-wing Senator Bernie Sanders grumbled this week that the law now has “big holes.” Under pressure from Manchin in particular, who as a senator from West Virginia always defends the interests of the coal industry, a proposal for a far-reaching transition to green energy has also been removed from the proposal. However, 555 billion dollars in climate measures are still included. A way for Biden to show the world in Glasgow that America is serious.
It is still no more than a proposal. Although the leader of the progressive caucus in the House has said they can agree to this version, 30 progressive deputies have already blocked a vote on Biden’s infrastructure bill. It will be put to the vote next Thursday at the earliest – too late for Glasgow, and for the Virginia gubernatorial election. And Manchin and Sinema have still not committed to the stripped-down bill.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC Handelsblad of 30 October 2021
A version of this article also appeared in NRC in the morning of October 30, 2021
#Joe #Biden #presidency #determined #week