The Arab Strategic Forum revealed that the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region in 2024 is mostly optimistic, as indicators confirm that countries in this region will continue to work to enhance economic growth and decline in inflation, despite the continuing state of uncertainty about the repercussions of geopolitical risks resulting from conflicts in the region. The region and the world.
The session “The Economic State of the Arab World in 2024,” in which the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, Dr. Jihad Azour, spoke, and was moderated by Al-Sharq Channel anchor Saba Odeh, monitored the most prominent conditions and impacts on the region’s economies during the year 2023, and the most important policies and procedures. The measures that must be followed to ensure continued growth and enhance the ability of the region's economies to withstand regional challenges and global changes.
Azour stressed that the short-term expectations for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 2024 carry a lot of positivity, although expectations tend to slow growth in most countries in the Middle East and North Africa region during 2023, before returning to a slight improvement in 2024, in addition to indicators Inflation reached its peak last year.
He continued: “We are living in a stage of major alliances, and the Arab Gulf countries in particular are a key partner in them, and their keenness to participate in major economic alliances such as BRICS has given them the ability to contribute to leaving a mark in the new economic transformations, and the Gulf countries have contributed about 50 billion dollars.” During the past years in the economies of neighboring countries, at a time when the contributions of the International Monetary Fund in the same period amounted to about 35 billion dollars, and the world wants the Arab countries in general to be a key partner in these transformations.
Dr. Jihad Azour said that interest rates continued to rise in the Middle East and North Africa region in 2023, albeit at a slower pace than in 2022. As a result, monetary policy will remain tight, but not in all countries. By comparing nominal interest rates with estimates of the natural interest rate, there is a need for further tightening to control price dynamics in some Arab countries.
He pointed out that capital flows to the region witnessed a recovery in the first two months of last year, and flows to the region returned in the wake of the global financial turmoil in March, unlike other emerging markets, albeit at a much slower pace than in 2022, and in the wake of In the Gaza conflict, these rates were on a downward trend that accelerated with the crisis, but then returned to pre-conflict levels.
He explained that the conflict in Gaza had little impact on the oil and gas sector, while it had a negative impact on the tourism sectors in neighboring economies. Tourism represented between 5-20% of the gross domestic product in all countries of the region before the Corona epidemic.
He continued: “The pace of the crisis affected the trade movement, as there was a decline that the region witnessed during the last period, as the trade movement in the Suez Canal declined by about 15%, which is a large percentage compared to last year, and the crisis also contributed to an increase in the cost of export,” noting that Syria, Jordan, and Egypt are considered the countries most affected by the continuing war in Gaza.
He pointed out that the oil sector in the region has witnessed many shocks during recent periods, but the Arab Gulf countries have proven their great ability to quickly adapt and confront risks that may affect the supply of oil.
Jihad Azour:
• Growth will slow in most countries in the Middle East and North Africa during 2023 and a slight improvement in 2024.
#Jihad #Azour #live #stage #major #alliances
