By Carlo Platella
Yet another front row for Red Bull at Suzuka, drastically less dominant however compared to six months ago, both on the flying lap and in the race simulations. Behind the world champions, balance reigns, with a great mix of drivers from different teams, underlining a track that enhances the human factor and where even the smallest details make the difference. Ferrari fails to emerge from the mid-group fray, still too gentle on the tires in the flying lap, surrendering to the excellent McLaren of Norris.
Ferrari-Red Bull poles apart
Fourth pole position of the year for Max Verstappen, finally joined on the front row by Perez's other Red Bull, apparently now able to master set-ups more similar to those of his teammate. He is indicative however as the world champion don't say you're completely satisfied with the balance of the car, as it was in the 2023 edition, denoting some imperfections in the setup. For this reason, even more than with McLaren, third on the grid with Norris, the comparison with the two Ferraris, well balanced according to the two drivers, becomes interesting.
At Suzuka the Cavallino has the widest gap in qualifying since the start of the season. If in the first three rounds the Maranello team complained about some human errors, including exit times from the pits and driving inaccuracies, none of this justifies the performance on Saturday in Suzuka. What makes the picture even more enigmatic is Leclerc, whose “I don't understand” uttered over the radio tells of all the difficulty in explaining the lack of competitiveness of a well-balanced car and not very nervous. The Red's shortcomings would seem to derive from the little grip extracted from the tyres, so much so that Leclerc was in difficulty in Q1 and forced to waste an extra set of softs, compromising Q3. A dynamic that reinforces the dualism between the mirror qualities of Ferrari and Red Bull.
The sectors
The world champions will have the advantage of managing the race from the first two positions, but in testing the RB20s did not show an excellent race pace, also confirmed by the drivers, even considering the variable fuel loads. Conversely, Ferrari shows a good consistency of pace, reaping the fruits of the work done in Maranello to improve tire management. However, containing tire degradation has a price, to the detriment of the exploitation of the new tire on the flying lap. Something that was very evident in 2023 at Red Bull, Aston Martin and Alfa Romeo, performing less well on Saturdays than on Sundays.
The docility on the tires sought by Ferrari for the 2024 car inevitably penalizes the temperature build-up in the preparation lap, an aspect highlighted several times by Leclerc, but also the grip extracted from the compound in the first corners. It is indicative that in qualifying in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Australia, Red Bull had delivered an average advantage over Ferrari of 1.2 tenths in the first sector. On the other hand, the Reds had shown better management throughout the lap, with an average gap of practically zero in the final corners.
Suzuka's first sector, with its sequence of high-speed corners, amplifies this difference, where Verstappen inflicts two tenths on the Ferrari. The world champion uses the front tires immediately ready, but then claims to having already exhausted them halfway through the tour. In fact, the Reds defend themselves well in the central section, but lose again in the last sector, losing another two tenths. Red Bull in particular makes the difference in the final chicane, making the most of the progress in the slow corners, digesting the curbs well and above all taking advantage of the rear tires for the traction phase, less stressed during the lap and therefore still alive.
Towards the race
The impression is that Red Bull's flying lap performance is to the detriment of tire management in the race, making victory on Sunday less obvious. However, setting the race from the front row constitutes an important advantage, especially on a track that is not easy for overtaking. What matters in Formula 1, moreover, is not isolated superiority in the flying lap or over the long distance, but the best compromise between the two aspects.
The chances of seeing a direct challenge between Sainz and the two Red Bulls will also depend on the pace of Norris, who was excellent third in qualifying. In Melbourne McLaren had expressed a very respectable race pace, finishing just a few seconds behind the winning Ferrari. In Australia, however, the limiting factor was graining, while in Japan it was again tire degradation. At the moment, however, no result is precluded for McLaren, with two stops available to put pressure on Red Bull.
Compared to last autumn, the British team halves the gap to the world champions, thanks also to a lap in which Norris put together his best partials. The car improves by another tenth in the corners of the first sector, which were already the strong point of the 2023 project, but sees the gaps widen in the other two. In particular, McLaren improves by 3 tenths in the central section, where its direct competitors however recover more than half a second compared to 2023, reaching 6 tenths for Mercedes and almost a second in the case of Alonso. This is a sector with two important extensions, a slow hairpin and the long-distance spoon curve, highlighting the main growth opportunities for automotive in the coming months.
Mercedes, small progress
Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin they open the third row, improving by 1.8 seconds compared to the 2023 edition, when, however, the Silverstone team experienced a tormented and anomalous qualifying. However, the AMR24 defends itself well on a track full of medium-high speed corners, the main Achilles' heel of the 2023 project. However, it is still too early to judge the new package of updates, which will have to provide important answers especially in terms of the impact on tire management.
Mercedes is again last among the top teams, this time with Hamilton ahead of Russell. In percentage though the gap from pole position is reduced by a third compared to Australia and Saudi Arabia, on a track that is convincing due to the difficulties of the Silver Arrows in the bends. The team also claims to have finally managed to keep the tires in the correct usage window, only partly helped by the lower temperatures. The most important feedback comes from the satisfaction expressed by Hamilton, happy with the progress and the sensations returned by the car, which become the point from which to start again for the future.
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