Japan, Prime Minister Kishida welcomes Meloni to Tokyo ahead of the G7 amidst internal politics in crisis and the fear of a war in the Pacific

TOKYO. The march towards the Italian G7 starts from Japan, theater of the 2023 summit. But Fumio Kishida, the host who receives Giorgia Meloni today, risks having his political fate sealed when he arrives in Borgo Egnazia. He is to blame for a huge scandal over funding for the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), which has governed almost continuously for 70 years. A potential unknown for the West and for Italy, with which Kishida has further strengthened relations since he became prime minister in October 2021.

The track on which ties between Japan and Italy have most accelerated is that of defence. It is no coincidence that Meloni will also meet the top management of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, an aerospace giant and leading company in Global Combat Air, the trilateral program which also involves London in the joint creation of new generation military jets. The agreement, signed by Defense Minister Guido Crosetto in Tokyo in December, is already in the operational phase.

It is foreseeable that Kishida will ask Meloni to keep the attention on the Indo-Pacific high during the Italian G7. The Japanese prime minister has repeatedly feared the risk that East Asia will become “the next Ukraine”. A fear that led Tokyo to strengthen the military alliance with the United States, with which in recent days simulations were conducted for the first time on a scenario of confrontation with China around Taiwan. High tension also on the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, where for a few weeks Chinese ships have been moving decisively to push away the Japanese ones. Kishida, expected in April on his fourth visit to the US in just over a year, is also (or above all) worried about the axis between Russia and North Korea. In this scenario, overcoming the pacifist constitution imposed on Japan after the Second World War is no longer taboo.

But for now the most imminent crisis scenario is political. The Kishida administration is overwhelmed by judicial events. Several members of the majority party apparently failed to declare to the tax authorities several monies collected from the tickets of the “election dinners”, the traditional financing vehicle. A major government reshuffle was not enough to relaunch the prime minister, who in an unprecedented move dissolved his faction within the LDP. According to the latest polls, Kishida's popularity has however fallen to 24.5%. Public trust is at an all-time low after the scandal involved Hirokazu Matsuno, chief of staff and right-hand man of the prime minister, who was later replaced. In yesterday's local elections in Maebashi, a fiefdom of Kishida's party, the opposition surprisingly won. In Kyoto, the majority won only narrowly against the Communist Party candidate.

The internal vote within the LDP is scheduled for September: the winner will be the prime ministerial candidate in the elections to be held by the beginning of 2025. Confirmation is uphill for Kishida, with the Japanese media already speculating on his successor. The most popular are the nationalist Shigeru Ishiba, the progressive Taro Kono (who as Defense Minister canceled the agreement with the USA for the Aegis Ashore missile system) and the economist Sanae Takaichi, who dreams of becoming the first female prime minister of Japan .

Meloni strengthens relations with Tokyo, but his interlocutor risks proving weak.