04/15/2024 – 10:48
In a discreet and “radical” movement, a country with a pacifist tradition has helped Kiev in the war against Russia. What is behind the alliance and to what extent has Tokyo really distanced itself from Moscow? Amid the lack of agreement between Republicans and Democrats in the United States on a new billion-dollar aid package for Ukraine, a situation that has been dragging on for months, A new international ally appeared, modestly and discreetly, on the Ukrainian horizon: Japan.
Like other Western countries, the Asian nation with a pacifist tradition increased its share of assistance to Kiev, becoming one of its most important financiers – and even the main one, in the first months of 2024 –, according to the Ministry of Finance of Kiev. Ukraine.
According to the Kiel Institute of World Economy, in January this year Japan was in sixth place in the ranking of international assistance to Ukraine, totaling 7.5 billion euros (R$40.8 billion). Adding the aid made available and promised, however, this value would exceed 12 billion dollars (R$65.3 billion), as announced by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal at a conference in Japan in February.
Japanese money helps keep the Ukrainian economy afloat – according to estimates by the Central Bank of Ukraine, the country has lost a third of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since the Russian invasion in February 2022.
For historical and legal reasons, Tokyo cannot supply Kiev with lethal weapons. Instead, it sends food, medicine, generators, cars, bulletproof vests and mine clearance equipment.
Indirect delivery of missiles via the US?
For Kiev, however, the most important thing is to obtain weapons. And Japan, despite its pacifism established by the Constitution, could help. The Japanese press reported a possible delivery of missiles produced under license in Japan for the United States' Patriot air defense systems, so that Washington can pass them on to Ukraine.
Representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry reacted by stating that the presence of Japanese missiles in Ukraine would have “consequences” for relations between Moscow and Tokyo.
Professor at Tsukuba University, Atsuko Higashino supports the delivery of missiles to Ukraine, saying they are not “weapons to kill, but to protect the Ukrainian people”. But she says she doesn't believe this will happen “soon”, since Japan, according to her, has a “serious deficit” in defense systems.
James Brown, a professor at Temple University in Tokyo, bets that deliveries of Patriot missiles to the US are already “practically agreed upon”, and that the delays are due to regulations on the Japanese side. For the Japanese government, says Brown, it is very important to ensure that its missiles do not end up in Ukraine.
A “radical change” in relations with Russia
But why did Japan become one of Ukraine's main partners? “By helping Ukraine resist Russian aggression, Japan is thinking about how to protect the international system against a violent change in the status quo,” explains Brown. According to him, this includes “deterring similar attempts by China against Taiwan.”
The topic was the subject of talks between Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US President Joe Biden at a trilateral Indo-Pacific summit in Washington.
For Higashino, Japan's stance towards Ukraine and Russia has “changed radically”. While in 2014 the country “accepted the illegal annexation of Crimea” and “Russian propaganda”, the large-scale invasion of Ukraine changed everything – in part, she said, due to “the clear violation of the Charter of the United Nations” and “ brutality” of Russian troops in Bucha in early 2022.
Russian gas is still important for Japan
An important factor in Japan's change in stance towards Ukraine was the change of leadership in the government. “Under the previous leadership of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan was very committed to getting closer to Russia. He wanted to build partnerships, resolve the territorial dispute [sobre as Ilhas Curilas] and sign a peace treaty,” says Brown. “But after 2022, the Japanese government realized that these efforts would not work. The priority is no longer building a partnership with Russia, but rather ensuring the failure of Russian aggression against Ukraine.”
Unlike Abe, Prime Minister Kishida adopted “very comprehensive sanctions against Russia,” says Higashino. “This was unthinkable before.”
Japan, however, has not completely severed ties with Russia. This is the case in some areas of the economy, especially in the energy sector. Japanese car makers have withdrawn from the lucrative Russian market, but Japan remains involved in the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project, in which other Western companies have stopped participating. The project supplies liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Japan – the country, which has virtually no fossil fuels of its own, obtains around 9% of its gas from Russia. Japan Tobacco also continues to operate in Russia.
Kiev nods to Tokyo
In October 2022, the Ukrainian Parliament passed a decree supporting Tokyo in the Russian-Japanese conflict over the Kuril Islands. The decree recognizes that the “Northern Territories”, as the islands are called in Japan, “remain occupied by the Russian Federation”. A similar measure was signed by Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski.
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