The forced displacement of more and more Gazans to the south of the Strip, bordering Egypt, and the rapid deterioration of the humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian enclave are generating growing concern in Cairo. It is feared that the expansion of the Israeli military offensive, its siege policy and the constant relocation orders to the population are the prelude to an expulsion of Gazans to the Sinai Peninsula or will aggravate their situation to the point that thousands of citizens try to cross the border in desperation, in a scenario that the Egyptian authorities consider a red line that could shake relations between both countries.
Since the beginning of Israel's military onslaught on Gaza in early October, there have been two large waves of forced displacements to the south. In its early stages, the Israeli occupation army's operations were concentrated in the northern half of the enclave and its neighbors were ordered to move to the southern half. Then, after the truce between Hamas and Israel concluded on December 1, the Israeli ground offensive was extended to that southern half, forcing tens of thousands of people, many of whom had already been displaced during the first weeks of the assault, having to flee to even more southern points, closer and closer to Egypt.
It is estimated that around 1.8 million people in Gaza, around 85% of its population, are currently internally displaced, representing the largest movement of Palestinian population recorded since the mass exodus caused by the establishment of the State. of Israel in 1948, according to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).
The current Israeli military offensive has also decimated the north of the enclave and the situation in the south is rapidly deteriorating. The arrival of tens of thousands of displaced people in recent days to cities like Rafah, next to Egypt, is causing extreme overcrowding conditions, according to the UN office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). It is also exacerbating food and water shortages.
The Palestinian Ministry of Health has also warned that the health system in the south is in a catastrophic state, which, added to the almost total collapse of its sanitation system, could soon cause more deaths from diseases than from bombings, according to the Organization. World Health Organization (WHO). UN Secretary-General António Guterres anticipated in a letter to the Security Council on Saturday that “public order will soon completely break down due to desperate conditions.”
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Protect the Egyptian soil
Concerned about this growing pressure on its border with Gaza, Egypt has informed both the United States and Israel that it is willing to consider breaking its relations with the Israeli State if the military campaign in the south of the Strip finally pushes the inhabitants from the Palestinian enclave to flee to the Sinai to seek refuge, according to four US and Israeli officials quoted on Thursday by Axios. Egypt was the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
The Egyptian Minister of Defense, Mohamed Zaki, an influential figure close to the president, Abdel Fattá al Sisi, stated in a speech last Monday that the country's armed forces are prepared to preserve national security and stability in the event of any aggression on Egyptian soil. . And he noted that the situation is very delicate and could cause an uncalculated military escalation that could impose a new reality on the ground. The director of the Egyptian Information Service, Dia Rashwan – who in recent weeks has emerged as a kind of official spokesperson – also reiterated last Thursday that the forced displacement towards the Sinai constitutes a red line.
Egypt, along with Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, have expressed concern since the beginning of the Israeli offensive that Israel would end up expelling the Palestinians from the Strip. Cairo has always categorically rejected a forced relocation to its territory because it would undermine the Palestinian right to establish a future state that includes Gaza and because it fears that this would turn the Sinai into a base of operations for Palestinian resistance movements. Sisi has suggested that Israel may temporarily relocate Gazans to its Negev desert.
The collapse of the south is also accelerating due to the little humanitarian aid that enters the Strip through the Rafah border crossing, which connects with Egypt, due to the obstacles and restrictions imposed by Israel. Since the end of the truce, about 100 trucks with supplies have been arriving per day, well below the average of 500 before the military offensive, according to OCHA data. The amount of fuel allowed is the minimum necessary to avoid the collapse of the most critical services. In recent days, telecommunications outages and the intensity of hostilities are making it even more difficult to receive aid.
The United Nations and Egypt have unsuccessfully asked Israel to allow supplies to be sent through their border crossings, and the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Khan, has warned that preventing the delivery of aid may constitute an international crime. In accordance with international humanitarian law, the evacuation of civilians in a context of conflict must be accompanied by all measures to ensure satisfactory conditions of security, accommodation, nutrition and hygiene, according to OCHA.
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