Israel's 'surgical' attacks in Lebanon and Syria, those of the United States in Baghdad, the missiles launched by the Houthis against ships in the Red Sea, up to the Kerman massacre claimed by IS. The effects of the war in Gaza have transformed the Middle East into a powder keg in just a few months. But “these actions are still below the level of large-scale conflict. Both sides use these kinds of actions to discourage the other and show their willingness to fight if it comes to that,” he explains in an interview with Adnkronos the well-known Iranian-American scholar and former Obama advisor for the Middle East, Vali Nasr, on the day of the funeral of the victims of the attack in Iran.
During the funeral ceremony, both Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami, promised that the Islamic Republic will avenge “the blood of the martyrs”. The Johns Hopkins University political scientist sees an “ambiguity” in Tehran's rhetoric. Officially, he reasons “Iran has not named anyone responsible for the attack and has called it a terrorist attack. It is therefore not obliged to retaliate against the United States or Israel. He said he will take revenge, but did not say against whom or when. Ambiguity is useful to Tehran because it does not force it to act immediately.”
Nasr believes that Iran is not seeking an “expanded” war or direct confrontation with the United States or Israel at this time. “Such a war would be costly. Current circumstances best serve Iran's strategic interests. An extended war wouldn't do it“, says Nasr, according to whom the Islamic Republic “is keeping pressure on the United States and Israel at a lower level of attacks. However – he concludes – Iran is preparing in case the United States and/or Israel also decide to expand the war to Lebanon or Yemen or to target Iran more directly in Iraq or even in inside Iran itself. An extended war may become inevitable and both sides may provoke it.”
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