Beijing’s peace initiative in the Middle East will permanently change the power structures in the region. China will not replace the US — but Beijing is now an alternative.
This analysis lies IPPEN.MEDIA as part of a cooperation with China.Table Professional Briefing before – first published him China.Table on March 24, 2023.
Beijing – For the first time after years of conflict, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran spoke on the phone on Thursday (March 23). At the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, Hussein Amirabdollahian and Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud exchanged congratulations, state media in both countries reported. In the conversation they also talked about a planned ministerial meeting. That the two states will resume bilateral relations after seven years of diplomatic deadlockis a negotiating success for Beijing — and that changes the balance of power in the Middle East.
The USA continues to play a central role. And Russia also has close ties to those in power in the region. But now Beijing is also playing along. The Iranian military advisor Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi even hopes that the “post-American era in the Persian Gulf has begun”. He probably goes too far with this assessment. The developments of the US television broadcaster CNN describe it more aptly: “China shattered the premise of American dominance in the Middle East.”
The US Magazine Wall Street Journal speaks of “China’s model of a new diplomacy.” “An order based on US rules is no longer the only responsible choice for advancing security policy,” summarizes Jon Alterman, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington , the process together. The deal shows that Saudi Arabia “no longer trusts Washington to have their back,” said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Washington Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Therefore, the Saudis “established China as the new ‘steward’ of Middle Eastern power politics.”
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Setback for Biden: Riyadh abstained from UN resolution against Putin’s Ukraine war
At the same time, however, Riyadh is leaving the door to the most important arms supplier open: Saudi Arabia had just a few hours before the announcement of the Saudi-Iran deal USA even as a broker for relationships with Israel brought into play. The Saudi proposal included security guarantees from the United States, support to develop a civilian nuclear program and reduced restrictions on US arms sales to Riyadh.
However, not at any price, like the US President Joe Biden already found out. Following his meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in mid-2022, Saudi Arabia-dominated OPEC+ has cut oil production. Biden, on the other hand, wanted OPEC to produce more and thus lower oil prices. So he wanted to relieve the American economy. Instead, the development played into the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Biden’s second setback: In the recent UN resolution against Putin Ukraine war Riyadh abstained, as did China and India. The Saudis have not forgotten that after the unmanned airstrikes on Saudi Arabia in 2019, the Americans “proved hesitant against oil tankers and oil facilities,” said Eyal Zisser, vice rector of Tel Aviv University. In addition, in 2021 the US Department of State canceled the Iran Yemeni Houthi-backed by the US list of foreign terrorist organizations. Before the ceasefire in April 2022, they had fired rockets and suicide drones at Saudi Arabia for years.
China reportedly wants to play a more neutral role in the region
But long before this development, Beijing decided to play a more neutral role in the region. Beijing claims — for whatever reason — China has no political interests there. 40 percent of gas and oil imports come from the region. The People’s Republic was very closely linked to Iran. The US has viewed Iran as hostile since the 1979 raid on the US embassy in Tehran and the 444-day ensuing 444-day kidnapping of more than 50 diplomats.
The Chinese managed to ease this confrontation as early as 2015, when they and the Europeans convinced then-US President Barack Obama to lift the sanctions against Iran. At that time, the German Foreign Minister and current Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and his then Chinese colleague Wang Yi played a central role. Diplomacy Czar Wang Yi has now also negotiated the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
After the European-Chinese joint success, China’s diplomats then set out on their own. An important step: the strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia in 2016. In December 2022, China and the Arab states decided to cooperate in the strategically important satellite navigation as a basis for later cooperation in the space sector. As of January 2023, 20 Arab countries have signed cooperation agreements under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At the end of 2022, when visiting Xi Jinpings Relations between Riyadh and Beijing upgraded to a “Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership”.
Trust in China is great
So trust in the region was now so great that China did not have to offer itself as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia — but the Saudis themselves asked Xi for help in December 2022. China’s President then invited Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi to Beijing in February and agreed closer economic relations with him.
After five days of intensive negotiations, the breakthrough came on March 10th. Chinese observers see the rapprochement with the Saudis as an indication to Putin that Beijing is not dependent on its oil and gas. Saudi Arabia is China’s biggest oil supplier and Putin’s biggest competitor. Now the chances for peace are increasing in Yemen, where Riyadh and Tehran have been waging a proxy war for eight years that has already killed more than 400,000 people: Tehran supports the Houthi rebels, Riyadh the government. The Biden government grudgingly welcomed the agreement, but immediately drew a new red line. It’s okay as long as a deal doesn’t involve “military and technological cooperation,” a senior US official told the portal axios.
The question now is whether Saudi Arabia will still accept such US requirements. A power test could be the admission of the Saudis to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is already being discussed. In addition to China, it also includes India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. So far, Iran has resisted. This could change now.
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