Is there a rebound for Biden in the United States elections? This is what the latest polls say

US President Joe Biden appears to be making a slight rebound in the race for the White House. That at least is what a series of new polls published this week indicate and in which, seven months before the presidential elections, the current president appears tying and even surpassing Republican Donald Trump nationally and in some key states.

According to one of those polls, produced by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult, Biden would have markedly improved in at least 6 out of 7 of the so-called “swing states,” that could define the current electoral cycle. In Wisconsin, where a month ago Trump led by four points, now the current president is in the lead (46 versus 45 percent).

In Michigan and Pennsylvania, other two key states that decided both the 2016 and 2020 contests, there is a technical tie between both rivals (the former president surpassed Biden also by four points in February).

In three others –Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina- Trump leads him by two points or more, but the difference was reduced compared to the last measurement.

Only in Georgia There was a favorable movement towards the Republican leader, as he added one point to the advantage he already had (from 48 percent versus 43 percent to 49 versus 42).

In another favorable turn toward the current president, although voters in these states continued to express pessimism about the state of the economy, 51 percent indicated that the situation is improving, an increase of four points compared to the previous measurement.

The survey was taken in the weeks following Biden's speech on the state of the union. According to its authors, the president's energetic tone during the speech, as well as the drop in both inflation and the unemployment rate, could have benefited him.

In another poll, this one at the national level, this one from Quinnipiac University, Biden would surpass Trump 48 percent vs. 45 percent if the elections were today.

Given the United States electoral system, where Whoever gains the most votes at the national level does not win but whoever accumulates the most electoral college seats (which are assigned to each state), the results in these seven states would be key to determining the winner. In fact, Biden can retain the White House only with victories in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – where he currently ties or surpasses Trump.

In another survey, this one at the national level, this one from Quinnipiac University, Biden would lead Trump 48 percent versus 45 percent if the election were held today.

However, when potential votes are counted for third party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornell West, It is Trump who heads the table with 39 percent of the preferences, compared to 38 for Biden and 9 percent for Kennedy.

New evidence of the damage that would be done to the Biden campaign by the permanence of Kennedy and others in the race.

In any case and despite the slight rebound, Biden still has a lot of distance to close if he wants to stay in the lead. Oval Office. To put it in context, in the 2020 elections and at this point in the race, the president was ahead by 6 points nationally and in almost all the undecided states except Florida.

“Several factors may explain why a former president, facing dozens of felony charges in various federal and state criminal trials, is tied or ahead of the current incumbent. A key reason, of course, is that despite strong recent performance of the American economy, voter perceptions of the economy have remained quite negative, and Joe Biden's approval rating has been stuck for months between 30 and 40 points,” he says Larry Sabato, elections expert from the University of Virginia.

But according to Sabato, another factor that has been sinking Biden is his surprising weakness among voters. African American voters, a group that generally favors Democratic candidates and that preferred him to Trump in the 2020 elections by an overwhelming majority (93 percent).

In recent polls, however, trump he would be taking up to 20 percent of these voters. Something that, if maintained, would be historic for a Republican Party candidate and would surely give him the keys to the White House.

According to SabatoHowever, this number contrasts with the reality of the last elections and could end up being artificial.

“The black vote has been overwhelmingly Democratic in presidential elections for more than half a century, and there have been few signs of major improvement for Republicans in recent elections. Exit polls from the 2022 midterms and patterns of participation of the 2024 primary season also question the polls that show Republicans on the verge of a breakthrough among these black voters. It may happen, but nothing tells me that this is the trajectory,” says the analyst.

In any case, seven months before the presidential elections, anything could still happen.

SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI

EL TIEMPO correspondent

Washington