In the early 1980s, Ayatollah Khomeiny appealed to Iranian women to raise “many sons” (he was not talking about daughters, when you need them just to keep producing sons). He wanted to strengthen Islam and produce a 20 million-strong army. Remember, neighbor Saddam Hussein had gone on the offensive in 1980, with the support of the world as the Iranians saw not wrongly. So promotion at work for those who had the most children, prohibition of abortion and less focus on family planning.
In 1979 Iran had 36 million inhabitants, and the result of Khomeini’s exhortations and measures was 50 million Iranians ten years later. But Iran’s leaders calculated that, all things being equal, the population would have doubled by 2010, and put the brakes on it after a fierce discussion that Khomeiny authorized after long hesitation. One hundred million Iranians! They couldn’t feed them, let alone house them.
Sterilizations and condoms were free and child benefits were abolished. Grooms had to take a birth control course – I was there once, with a female health ministry official explaining the workings of the pill, IUD and condom to very shy couples.
The ayatollahs’ brake produced one of the fastest declines in population growth in the world: From nearly 4 percent growth in 1986 to 1.3 in 2020 (World Bank rating, in the Netherlands 0.6). But for a few years now, things have changed again, primarily to combat the aging of the population. Supreme leader Khamenei said in 2012 that the program of the 1990s had been a mistake, and even, what he never does, put his hand into his own chest: “I had a part in it too. May God and history forgive us. If we continue like this, in the not-too-distant future we will be a land of the elderly.”
In the meantime, various measures have been taken to increase the number of baby Iranians, but without success. Understandable, because citizens have become more assertive and foreign sanction after sanction plus internal mismanagement only result in economic malaise. The Iranians don’t think this is the time for family expansion.
Why am I writing about this today? Because of the new ‘Law on Rejuvenation of the Population and Support for the Family’, which has just come into force. The typical reaction of an authoritarian regime: we just ram those babies in. Sterilizations are punishable by five years in prison instead of being free of charge; abortion for medical reasons – otherwise prohibited in any case – only possible with permission from two doctors and a judge; free contraceptives have been abolished and sex education is restricted. The state media should encourage women to have more children. And of course subsidies for more children.
Iranian women are furious because the authorities think they can dispose of their bodies. Doctors warn of an increase in sexually transmitted diseases and illegal abortions, now estimated at 300,000 to 600,000 per year (Netherlands 32,000).
Ayatollah Khamenei says Iran needs to increase from 83 million to 150 million inhabitants. Question: Wouldn’t it be more convenient for the authorities to have a country with docile elderly people than full of rebellious youths who can’t find a job?
Carolien Roelants is a Middle East expert and here she separates the facts from the hypes every week.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC in the morning of December 27, 2021
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