Iran and its allied terror groups are threatening Israel. Experts are warning of possible escalation. A tense showdown threatens to spiral out of control.
- The Iran and the Hezbollah threaten Israel after the attack on Hamas leader Haniya
- Experts fear an escalation of the situation in the Middle East and a full-scale war
- US Senator warns that Hanija’s death could jeopardize ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas could threaten
- After the death of the Hezbollah commander, concerns are growing that the situation between Israel and Hezbollah will escalate
- This article is available in German for the first time – it was first published on August 1, 2024 by the magazine Foreign Policy.
Tehran – Two high-profile assassinations have brought the Middle East to the brink of a major regional war and disrupted the high-pressure ceasefire and hostage negotiations over the war in Gaza Strip Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, and Ismail Haniya, Hamas’ political leader, were killed this week in separate attacks in Beirut and Tehran, respectively.
The attacks dealt a major blow to the two militant groups and their backers in Iran. Israel is reportedly behind the killings of both groups, raising the risk of a wider war between Israel and Iran and its proxies.
After death of Hamas leader: Experts expect retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah
“Hezbollah and now Iran will likely have to retaliate,” said Michael Mulroy, a former assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East. “This is the closest the region has come to all-out conflict in the last 10 months,” he added.
Indeed, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly ordered Iran to directly attack Israel on Wednesday in response to Haniya’s killing on Iranian soil.
Iran threatens Israel: Expert fears possible all-out war – “because things are getting out of control”
U.S. officials, lawmakers and analysts have said neither Israel nor Iran are seeking a full-scale war that could be orders of magnitude more deadly than Israel’s current war in Gaza against Hamas. But that alone cannot prevent war.
“If war happens, it will not be because of a deliberate declaration of war, but because things are getting out of control,” said Bilal Saab, an expert on U.S.-Middle East security issues at Trends Research and Advisory, a consulting firm. “Both sides, Israel and the Iran-led axis, do not want such a war, but it is the ultimate paradox because they continue to carry out provocative actions that bring us ever closer to war.”
US Democrats’ support for Israel crumbling – Netanyahu under fire
The latest round of escalation comes at a time when the unwavering US support for Israel, which has been a mainstay of US foreign policy for decades, is eroding in the Democratic Party. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing growing frustration and backlash from Democratic lawmakers over the way Israel has conducted its war in Gaza.
Human rights groups accuse Israel of indiscriminately bombing Palestinian civilians and fuelling a humanitarian crisis by temporarily blocking humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. An estimated 39,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war, according to the Palestinian Health Authority, which is part of the Hamas-controlled government.
Israel counters that it has tried to limit civilian casualties throughout the war. Israel also says that Hamas deliberately builds its military infrastructure beneath civilian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals, to target civilians.
Killing of Hamas leader in Tehran: US Senator sees threat to ceasefire talks
Haniyeh’s killing could deal a blow to ongoing but so far unsuccessful efforts by mediators from the United States, Egypt and Qatar to reach a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas and persuade the latter to release the hostages. Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s Qatar-based political wing, was considered the militant group’s international face and took part in the ceasefire and hostage negotiations.
“This makes the hostage negotiations even more difficult and the situation even more precarious,” said Democratic Senator Ben Cardin, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and an influential advocate of U.S.-Israel relations in Congress.
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But analysts said Haniya had limited influence within Hamas and that the final decision on a ceasefire and hostage deal would ultimately rest with the group’s top Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar, who has so far eluded Israeli authorities.
Senior Biden administration officials have urged all parties to de-escalate as Washington and other interlocutors struggle to salvage ongoing talks.
US Secretary of State warns: “The path the region is currently on leads to more violence”
“The path the region is currently on is leading to more conflict, more violence, more suffering and more insecurity,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday during a press conference in Mongolia, where he is on a multi-country tour of the Indo-Pacific. “And to achieve that goal, all parties must first stop taking escalatory actions.”
Most U.S. and regional officials expect Tehran to retaliate against Israel for the killing of Haniyeh, which exposed serious flaws in Iran’s security measures. Haniyeh was reportedly killed by a remote-controlled bomb planted in a Tehran guesthouse where he was known to stay when in Iran about two months ago.
The New York Times reports that the Iranian military leadership is considering a combined drone and missile attack on military facilities near Tel Aviv and Haifa, perhaps as part of a coordinated operation. The operation could also include attacks by Iranian proxy groups in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Iranian attack on Israel in April: Israel was able to repel hundreds of rockets and drones
Some officials and analysts expect Iran’s response to be similar to the broad attack on Israel in April that used ballistic missiles and drones. Such an attack could indicate that Tehran is carefully calibrating its response to avoid sparking a larger war.
Most of the missiles and drones used in the attack were easily intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome system and other Middle East air defense systems coordinated by U.S. Central Command, averting costly attacks that could lead to a larger war.
“Iran will have to think very carefully about what it does next,” said Kenneth McKenzie, a retired U.S. Marine general who will head Central Command until 2022. “I don’t know that escalation is inevitable.” While Iran has promised to respond within 48 hours, McKenzie said Tehran’s retaliation so far does not indicate it will stick to that timeline. Instead of a direct attack inside Israel, Iran could choose a less escalatory option, such as attacking Israeli facilities outside the region.
Israel kills Hezbollah commander in Beirut
Israel has vowed to kill all Hamas leaders following the October 7 Hamas attack that killed around 1,200 Israelis. In addition to the recent killings of Shukr and Haniya, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed on Thursday that a July airstrike in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip killed Mohammed Deif, the leader of Hamas’ military wing.
According to Israeli sources, the slain Hezbollah commander Shukr was responsible for the rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that killed 12 children over the weekend. He is also said to have been involved in the 1983 bombing of a barracks in Beirut that killed more than 240 US soldiers.
Netanyahu warns that “Israel will demand a very high price for any aggression against us”
Israel has refused to comment on any involvement in Haniya’s death, but Netanyahu delivered a defiant speech at IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv on Wednesday, saying Israel had killed Shukr and warning that “Israel will exact a very high price for any aggression against us.”
But experts warn that the Israeli military, still actively fighting in Gaza, could be overwhelmed if the war escalates into a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah or Iran. Such a war would be “a whole different ball game,” said Jonathan Lord, an expert on U.S. Middle East policy at the Center for a New American Security.
Experts say Israel would have difficulty sustaining combat operations against Hezbollah, which has far more fighters and weapons than Hamas and extensive tunnel networks beneath Lebanon’s southern border with Israel. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based military think tank, Israel’s active-duty military is slightly less than a third the size of Iran’s.
About the authors
Robbie Gramer is a diplomacy and national security reporter at Foreign Policy. Twitter (X): @RobbieGramer
Jack Detsch is a Pentagon and national security reporter at Foreign Policy. Twitter (X): @JackDetsch
We are currently testing machine translations. This article has been automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on June 2, 2024 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com“ was published – as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.
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