Ipec, a research company founded by executives from the former Ibope, corrected this Monday (Oct 3, 2022) the data on the field collection period of the survey of voting intentions for the government and Senate in Paraná.
The initial information published on the eve of the election, on Saturday (Oct 1), said that the survey had been carried out from September 29 until the day of publication, October 1. The interviews, however, had been conducted earlier, from the 28th to the 30th of September.
In a note read in Good night Paranálocal television news RPC (affiliate of TV Globo in Curitiba), on Monday, Ipec informed that the error occurred during the “typing in the release” with the search results.
Read the full text of the note read on TV news below:
“Note on the field period of the Ipec/RPC survey – 3rd round
“Ipec clarifies that due to a typo in the release sent to the PRC, containing the results of the 3rd round of the survey carried out in the State of Paraná, released by the broadcaster on October 1 (Saturday), it incorrectly informed the field period of the search. The fieldwork was carried out between September 28 and 30 and not from September 29 to October 1, as informed in the release sent to the broadcaster.”
The IPEC survey projected the re-elected governor Ratinho Jr. (PSD) with 62% of valid votes in the race for the state executive. The candidate took the dispute in the 1st round, but with 69.6% of valid votes4.6 pp above the survey’s margin of error (3 pp).
ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT
Another point of criticism in relation to Ipec is the discrepancy between the result of the presidential race in the 1st round and the projection released by the polling company on the eve of the election, on October 1st. Read below what the study said and the result at the polls:
In note (full – 440 KB) released this Monday, the company said that its latest research “showed that it was not possible to say whether or not the election would end in the first round”. He also stated that the difference in percentage points in the vote and in the projection of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) “occurred by trends already pointed out by the research”.
On the night of this Monday, the main news program in the country, the National Journalgives TV Globe, aired an extensive video report (about 10 minutes long) on discrepancies between polling companies’ projections and poll results. She listened to Márcia Cavallari, executive director of Ipec, and Luciana Chong, director of Datafolha.
To JN, Márcia Cavallari declared that Bolsonaro’s rise would be a movement in reaction to the company’s latest survey, which showed Lula with 51% of valid votes. For the director of Ipec, with this information, voters from Ciro Gomes (PDT), of Simone Tebet (MDB) and undecided voters may have moved the vote from the 2nd round to the 1st to prevent the election from ending on October 2nd.
“The last poll released on the eve of the election showed that President Lula could win the election in the 1st round, and in fact he was 1.6% of the votes away from winning in the 1st round. President Jair Bolsonaro, in turn, had 6 points more than the poll indicated, and analyzing the results, we see that there was a migration of the 3% of undecided that we still had in the poll on the eve of the election, and the index Ciro and Simone who got smaller. So, perhaps with this information, voters took a strategic action to anticipate a possible vote in the 2nd round in this 1st to prevent the election from ending in the 1st round.”said Marcia.
Luciana Chong, from Datafolha, gave a similar assessment. She declared that the “useful vote”, pursued by Lula’s campaign in the last days before the 1st round, “happened in favor of Bolsonaro in this final stretch”.
ELECTION IN THE STATES
In relation to the differences presented in the projections to state governments, the director of Ipec cited the cases of Bahia, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul, saying that the upward or downward movements of a given candidate do not stop when the research ends. In the case of the gauchos, she said that there was a “very fast last minute move” in favor of Onyx Lorenzoni (PL).
“In Bahia, we were already showing the trend and growth of the candidate Jerônimo and the fall of the candidate ACM Neto. This trend continued until the time of voting, because this movement does not stop when we stop doing the survey. In Rio de Janeiro, the same thing. We had a high contingent,” he said.
About Rio Grande do Sul, he declared the following to the news: “The research already showed that there could be a 2nd shift or not, but that, due to the number of undecided people, the scenario could be different. Now, in Rio Grande do Sul, I think there was a very quick last-minute movement there, driven mainly by the strength of President Bolsonaro, who pulled several candidates from his party or coalition for both governments and the Senate.”
For Luciana Chong, from Datafolha, one must be careful when saying whether a survey was right or wrong. “Research is very important and should be evaluated carefully when they say that the research was right or wrong. The objective of the research is not to get it right, but to show the population and society how the electoral race is going in Brazil or in a certain state”, stated.
Márcia Cavallari stated that the surveys measure voting intentions, not the “electoral behavior”. Read below the speech of the director of IPEC:
“Research is important in the electoral process because it brings information to voters. Voters can vote well informed about the situation and make a decision based on the information they have, whether with a strategic vote or not. We always say that the poll is a diagnosis of that moment, we are measuring voting intentions, we are not measuring electoral behavior. And the voter can there, in their final vote decision, make a more assertive decision or… in the end there based on their information.”
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